ECB Preview from the major banks

UBS: Expect 10bp cut to deposit rate and 3 to 6-month extension of QE.

JPM: Forecast 10bp cut in deposit rate & cumulative increase of E300bn in QE.

Goldman: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.30%, but leave refi rate at 5bps

& extend QE through end of Q3 2017.

HSBC: Cut deposit rate by 10bp and drop Sep 2016 timing of QE

Nomura: Expect ECB to extend QE to “end June 2017 or beyond”, increase monthly

purchases by E10bln and cut deposit rate to -0.30%

BAML: Expect ECB to extend QE to at least Sep 2017, rise purchases to E70bln

p/m and cut deposit rate to -0.30%

Pimco: Raise QE by E10bln p/m & extend to Mar 2017. Cut deposit rate to -0.30%

and MRO to 0.0%.

Morgan Stanley: Cut deposit rate to -0.30%, leave refi rate on hold but

increase marginal lending rate to 0.40%. Increase QE by 15bln p/m & extend by

6-months.

Barclays: Expect ECB to extend timeframe of QE, and cut depot rate to -0.30%.

Do not rule out possibility of a larger “two-tier” cut in depot rate.

Citi: Expect deposit rate cut to -0.40%, QE to increase by E15bln p/m and

extend for at least 6-months. See chance of Refi rate cut to 0bp from 5bp.

RBC: Expect 20bp deposit rate cut & 6-month extension to QE.

Rabobank: See ECB cutting deposit rate by 15bp and increase QE by E30bln p/m.

Standard Bk: ECB to extend QE for a year and lower deposit rate by 20bp.

BNP: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -40bps, increase QE by E10bln p/m and

extend it by 12-months to Sep 2017.

RBS: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.40%, increase QE by E15bln p/m and

extend it to Mar 2017.

Commerzbank: ECB to increase and extend QE “for as long as necessary”, also

include regional govt bonds. Deposit rate likely cut to “somewhere around -0.40%

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