UBS: Expect 10bp cut to deposit rate and 3 to 6-month extension of QE.
– JPM: Forecast 10bp cut in deposit rate & cumulative increase of E300bn in QE.
– Goldman: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.30%, but leave refi rate at 5bps
& extend QE through end of Q3 2017.
– HSBC: Cut deposit rate by 10bp and drop Sep 2016 timing of QE
– Nomura: Expect ECB to extend QE to “end June 2017 or beyond”, increase monthly
purchases by E10bln and cut deposit rate to -0.30%
– BAML: Expect ECB to extend QE to at least Sep 2017, rise purchases to E70bln
p/m and cut deposit rate to -0.30%
– Pimco: Raise QE by E10bln p/m & extend to Mar 2017. Cut deposit rate to -0.30%
and MRO to 0.0%.
– Morgan Stanley: Cut deposit rate to -0.30%, leave refi rate on hold but
increase marginal lending rate to 0.40%. Increase QE by 15bln p/m & extend by
– Barclays: Expect ECB to extend timeframe of QE, and cut depot rate to -0.30%.
Do not rule out possibility of a larger “two-tier” cut in depot rate.
– Citi: Expect deposit rate cut to -0.40%, QE to increase by E15bln p/m and
extend for at least 6-months. See chance of Refi rate cut to 0bp from 5bp.
– RBC: Expect 20bp deposit rate cut & 6-month extension to QE.
– Rabobank: See ECB cutting deposit rate by 15bp and increase QE by E30bln p/m.
– Standard Bk: ECB to extend QE for a year and lower deposit rate by 20bp.
– BNP: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -40bps, increase QE by E10bln p/m and
extend it by 12-months to Sep 2017.
– RBS: Expect ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.40%, increase QE by E15bln p/m and
extend it to Mar 2017.
– Commerzbank: ECB to increase and extend QE “for as long as necessary”, also
include regional govt bonds. Deposit rate likely cut to “somewhere around -0.40%