ECB VIEW

From the FXWW Chatroom: ECB VIEW: (1/2) Majority of Banks see the ECB keeping rates, forward guidance
and sequencing unchanged at Thursday’s GC meeting, but with risk of further talk
of reduction in “downside risks”. Most banks pencil in possible change to
forward guidance in June and announcement on QE in Sep:
– HSBC: Expect no change to policy or forward guidance, likely change to forward
guidance in Q4 2017, QE until Q4 2018 with no rise in rates until then
– Citi: No change in rates or guidance/sequencing, but acknowledge some
reduction in downside risks. Expect remove bias to lower rates in Jun & end of
APP in Sep.
– RBC Expect ECB to leave rates unchanged. Expect Draghi will purposely look to
strike a more dovish tone in his post meeting press conference along lines of
his speech to the annual ‘ECB and its Watchers’ conference.
– JPM: Expect ECB to sounds more optimistic on growth, could even upgrade growth
risk to “balance” or say risk diminished further, but Draghi to confirm QE until
end of year and rates rise only well after QE has ended.
– Cmzbank: Stick to its steady hand policy and adhere to its forward guidance.
16:29:56

ECB VIEW: (2/2) ECB views continue:
– Investec: No change in rates, QE/forward guidance. Expect Draghi to recognise
upbeat survey data but not to draw new lines between this & its policy stance.
– Nomura: Expect all key policy rates and QE to be unchanged. Not expecting any
major shifts to forward guidance Thursday, but likely in coming weeks.
– UniCredit: Do not expect new policy announcements, or any material changes of
rhetoric. Move to more balanced risk assessment probably in June.
– CS: Likely to leave all current parameters of mon policy unchanged. Likely to
refrain from significant adjustment to its forward guidance more likely in June.
– UBS: ECB to remain on hold, continue to expect Bank to adjust forward guidance
in June/July. Then in Sep announce plans to wind down QE starting in Jan 2018
and last 6/9 months. Rate hike not expected until 2019 at the earliest.
– Barclays: No change in policy expected, see change in forward guidance in Jun,
likely QE taper announcement in Sep/Oct to start 2018, rate hike in Q2 & Q4 2018
– Danske: ECB on autopilot with a slight dovish tone from Draghi. ECB could
change forward guidance in June and extension of QE in Sep.
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