From the FXWW Chatroom: ECB VIEW: (1/2) Majority of Banks see the ECB keeping rates, forward guidance
and sequencing unchanged at Thursday’s GC meeting, but with risk of further talk
of reduction in “downside risks”. Most banks pencil in possible change to
forward guidance in June and announcement on QE in Sep:
– HSBC: Expect no change to policy or forward guidance, likely change to forward
guidance in Q4 2017, QE until Q4 2018 with no rise in rates until then
– Citi: No change in rates or guidance/sequencing, but acknowledge some
reduction in downside risks. Expect remove bias to lower rates in Jun & end of
APP in Sep.
– RBC Expect ECB to leave rates unchanged. Expect Draghi will purposely look to
strike a more dovish tone in his post meeting press conference along lines of
his speech to the annual ‘ECB and its Watchers’ conference.
– JPM: Expect ECB to sounds more optimistic on growth, could even upgrade growth
risk to “balance” or say risk diminished further, but Draghi to confirm QE until
end of year and rates rise only well after QE has ended.
– Cmzbank: Stick to its steady hand policy and adhere to its forward guidance.
and sequencing unchanged at Thursday’s GC meeting, but with risk of further talk
of reduction in “downside risks”. Most banks pencil in possible change to
forward guidance in June and announcement on QE in Sep:
– HSBC: Expect no change to policy or forward guidance, likely change to forward
guidance in Q4 2017, QE until Q4 2018 with no rise in rates until then
– Citi: No change in rates or guidance/sequencing, but acknowledge some
reduction in downside risks. Expect remove bias to lower rates in Jun & end of
APP in Sep.
– RBC Expect ECB to leave rates unchanged. Expect Draghi will purposely look to
strike a more dovish tone in his post meeting press conference along lines of
his speech to the annual ‘ECB and its Watchers’ conference.
– JPM: Expect ECB to sounds more optimistic on growth, could even upgrade growth
risk to “balance” or say risk diminished further, but Draghi to confirm QE until
end of year and rates rise only well after QE has ended.
– Cmzbank: Stick to its steady hand policy and adhere to its forward guidance.