The EUR/NZD has stumbled this month and is trading lower after putting on over 4,000 pips in the previous five bullish months. Dairy trade data has been positive for the last three consecutive auctions and this might be a case of the NZD, aka Milky Bar Kid, starting to make a fight back here.
EUR/NZD monthly: price action stumbled in September after previously making a bullish wedge breakout and posting five bullish monthly candles. The monthly 200 EMA and 38.2% fib level have proven to be some resistance BUT, is this just a puase on the way up to test the 61.8% fib near 2.12?
This pause in the rally would have been helped by better Dairy Trade Auction data:
EUR/NZD weekly: there were some other technical clues here with a bearish-reversal ‘Railway Track’ candle printed three weeks ago and price action since then has been bearish. Any bearish continuation move might target just under the 1.66 region as this is near the 50% fib and with daily and weekly 200 EMAs nearby:
EUR/NZD daily: is this a Bull Flag though? Watch trend lines for any breakout here; bullish or bearish.
EUR/NZD 4hr: Price action has been consolidating for the last five weeks and this is why I haven’t been posting about this pair much of late. However, watch for any trend line breakdown to signal the next directional move here:
Summary: watch for any trend line break on the 4hr / daily chart to help identify the next move on the EUR/NZD:
- A bearish breakout might target the sub 1.66 level as this is near the 50% fib and daily and weekly 200 EMAs.
- A bullish breakout would most likely target the monthly 200 EMA again before attempting the 61.8% fib up near 2.12.
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