Technically, after having risen to a high of 1.0706, Euro is now sitting in the middle of the day’s range, although the short term charts show the potential for further gains back towards 1.0700. The 100 HMA is currently supporting the price action and if we do head higher then back above the 1.0708 high would see further progress towards 1.0715 (38.2 of 1.1035/1.0520) and then to the daily Kijun at 1.0755 and then to the stronger level (200 HMA/50% pivot of 1.1035/1.0520 /daily Tenkan) at 1.0775. It would take quite a hawkish Draghi to get the Euro above here, but the next port of call would be at 1.0800 and then at 1.0835 (76.4%)
On the downside, back below 1.0600 would see a run towards lows of the last couple of sessions in the 1.0520/30 area. The dailies remain negative, and a break of 1.0520 would signal a run to 1.0500 and then towards the previous, 13 Mar, 1.0461 low. Beyond there, support is again rather thin until we meet the March 2003 low at 1.0334. Under this would likely see another acceleration lower, as there is then very little left to hold it up ahead of the major descending channel base at around 1.0200 (monthly chart below) and then at the Fibo support at 1.0069 (76.4% of 0.8225/1.6037), below which parity will become a magnate.
The Feds Kotcherlakota is speaking in the Asian time zone but the major focus will be on the China GDP, ahead of the main action of the day at the ECB Press Conference.
Economic data highlights will include:
German CPI, EU Trade Balance, ECB Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference, New York Sate Manufacturing Index, US Industrial Production , Capacity Utilisation, NAHB Housing Market Index, Beige Book, Fed Bullard/Kotcherlokata Speech.