EUR/USD: Things sure looks grim but…by Mary McNamara

Things sure look grim for the E/U. It is currently trying to hold up near the pivotal 61.8% fib of its last bull move (2012-2014) but a weekly close below this key level would deal this pair a major blow.

The 61.8% fib level is a key retracement level and this particular fib often marks the period of a major trend shift. The E/U is below this 61.8% fib as I type but the week is not over yet. If ever there was a time when this pair needed to rally to stop this major sell off then tonight would have to be that time. Any E/U recovery to prevent a weekly close below this 61.8% fib would offer some hope of a possible wider recovery here. A weekly close below this level though would support bearish continuation.

E/U weekly: a weekly close below the 61.8% fib would be very bearish:

EUweekly

One situation that could possibly work in favour for the E/U is that the USDX is running into major resistance from a 78.6% fib and a major monthly chart bear trend line. Any respect of this resistance region by the USDX would help to support the E/U:

USDX monthly:

USDXmonthly

The situation does seem dire for the E/U but, before being confident of bearish follow through here, I would want to see:

  • the E/U make a weekly close and hold below the 61.8% fib level and
  • the USDX close and hold above the monthly triangle trend line.

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