EURUSD: US$ gains after good NFP. More to come? by FX Charts

The stronger than anticipated January NFP (257 v 232 exp) combined with a sharp upward revision for the December figure (from 252k to 329k) underpinned the dollar on Friday, pushing the Euro lower, for what looks like more consolidation in the week ahead.There is a mix of data out in the coming week, although much of it is secondary in nature, but headlined on Thursday by the US Retail Sales for January and then the provisional EU Q4 GDP figures on Friday. Before then, today’s focus will be on the Sentix Investor Confidence Survey.

Technically there is little real change, and given the mixed nature of the charts it could well be that the pair continue to chop around within the 1.1260/1.1450 range over the next few sessions.

Near term resistance is now seen at 1.1360 (200 HMA) and then at 1.1405 (100 HMA). Above this, which looks a little unlikely today, would see the Euro head back towards 1.1450 and beyond there, towards Friday’s high of 1.1485.  If we were to see a move to beyond 1.1500, which I doubt, at least in the next few days, then we would see a run towards last week’s peak at 1.1533. Above there would see further sellers at the nearby Fibo resistance at 1.1542 (76.4% of 1.1679/1.1097), which would set up a run up towards 1.1600 (daily Kijun) and on to 1.1655 (38.2% of 1.2569/1.1097). If seen, such a rally could be seen as a potential sell opportunity, with a SL left on all short positions to be left above the 21 Jan high of 1.1680.

The downside, which looks rather more vulnerable according to the short term momentum indicators, the immediate support is at 1.1300 and then at around 1.1260 (61.8% of 1.1097/1.1533). Under there would see bids at 1.1220 and 1.1200, below which would see a run towards the trend lows (1.1097).

As we said before, below 1.1097, the next obvious target is at 1.1000, where many analysts had previously been looking for a 2015 low, although the next realistic technical level is not seen until the September 2003 low at 1.0759, beyond which we are going to zero-in, eventually, to the Fibo support at 1.0080 (76.4% of 0.8225//1.6037) and then on parity.

Economic data highlights will include:

M: German Current Account, Trade Balance, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey

T: US Wholesale Inventories

W:

T: German CPI, EU Industrial Production, US Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories

F: Provisional member & EU Inflation & GDP Data, EU Trade Balance, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index..

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