From the FXWW Chatroom – EURUSD is trading around 1.1500 over the last 12 hours as the market has calmed down a bit after a couple roller-coaster days. Real money names have become active after staying on the sidelines for a few days. There’s good demand even though Bund/BTP spreads are trading at elevated levels with 10y at 2.80. Macro names have been selling and hence upside potential is limited. The pair keeps topping out ahead of 1.1550. EURUSD may remain rangebound ahead of the US payrolls. I prefer selling rallies as the greenback shows little sign of weakness on the back strong US data. (UBS)
Philippe LhermieOct
There’s also Hurricane Florence which landed on Virginia and Carolinas at the time of the establishment survey week, but:
1) The size of the damage is on a much more concentrated area
2)The weekly claims did not spike as high as Irma (it is almost unnoticeable)
3) Goldman estimates that the temporary drag is about 33k, but the market could see that positive ultimately if you remember Yellen saying for Irma that reconstruction after such natural disaster boosts employment
the following month.
3) BAML notes that the survey was conducted on the 12th of sept and Florence made landfall on the 14th of sept. Hence workers should be counted as employed in the establishment survey as long as they received pay for any portion of the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month.
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