An Experiment about News and Price by Sam Eder

Sometimes trading can be so easy.

Your positions swim along nicely as predicted, and you can sit by happy as Larry as they approach your profit target.

But sometimes good trades misbehave. When they should go down they go sideways, or worse they go up.

Take the AUDUSD last week for example. It had three surprises that should have been negative for the pair.

  • The RBA cut rates, which when it was probably a 50/50 call
  • The Non-farm payroll data in the US was exceptionally good
  • China surprised with negative trade data

I won’t get into the intricacies of these announcements, but needless to say, on balance, they were bad for my mates across the Tasman (the Aussies).

The response though was not as expected. When the RBA cut rates the price rebounded and a reversal pin candle formed (bullish price action). Though it sold off, there was a weak reaction to the US data. Finally the price recovered quickly from the weekend gap down that occurred after the Chinese trade data.

Something is going on that I just don’t know.

When good trades go bad

When you are trading you want the price and news to play nicely together.

If you are short and there is bad news you want the price to go down, if you are long and there is good news you want the price to go up.

If you get bad news and the price does not go down (or vice versa), as a trader it’s time to zoom in your focus. This could be a sign that a reversal is on the cards.

For some traders this will create enough uncertainty to exit their position. Or if you don’t exit it should at the very least heighten your alert status, or suggest that you trim your positions, depending on your objectives and trading horizon.

Time for an experiment

So back to my friends across the ditch.

Will this bullish price action in reaction to negative news events be a precursor to a reversal in the currency pair? Or is the Aussie just being stubborn on its way down?

Here is an interactive chart of the AUDUSD. If you click the play button it will move the price forward from when I initially created it earlier today. You can give it a try.

(note the site is not letting me add the chart so you will need to click on the link below.)


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Will the AUDUSD go up? by SamEder on TradingView.com

We can check back in time and see our results.

Notice the reaction to the news

The boarder point of this experiment is to encourage you to notice the reaction to the news.

You don’t have to be an expert yourself. There are plenty or analysts you can follow (like marctomarket) whom can tell you if the news is good or bad and if it was a surprise or not.

You also don’t need to watch the news live. Just look at the calendar of upcoming news events  and determine what ones are of significance. Then make sure you check the charts and read about them the day after.

You will then get an indication of what it means to the pairs you are trading.

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders. He is a part owner of Forex Signal Provider fxrenew.com (You can get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter for free.

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