Fed speech flicks switch on skittish markets

Forex Factory had Monday’s Fed speech down as a potentially ‘medium impact’ event. How wrong that was! The dovish Fed rhetoric soothed fears of an imminent rate hike which sent the US$ a bit lower but stocks higher. I had noted on the w/e many FX charts with triangle trend lines worth watching for any momentum based breakout. Some trend lines were respected and others were broken, however, the momentum factor was not present for all of the breaks.

FX Indices: the FX Indices are trying to re-align for LONG EUR$ and SHORT US$. They’re not there yet BUT this will keep me wary of the cross pairs as they can become choppy if the US$ and EUR$ hit an aligned ‘groove’.

USDX 4hr: The dovish tone with the Fed speech put pressure on the US$.

usdx4

EURX 4hr: not much love here though in response. Note how price is back at the key 100 level.

eurx4

Gold 4hr: I had suggested to watch for any 61.8% fib bounce near the $1,320 level and this has kicked in:

gold4hr

Silver 4hr: there has been a bounce off the trend line I had noted in my w/e analysis:

silver4hr

S&P500 30 min: what a ride these last two days! Joy to those who can trade the US session!

sp30min

Oil weekly: still shaping up with the inverse H&S here:

oilweekly

XJO: Aussie ASX-200: I had Tweeted yesterday to watch for any support from the 5,200 level to support a monthly-chart ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern. The level held through yesterday’s trade but price is carving a bounce off the 5,200 for now. The month has a way to go of course but this is a pattern to keep an eye on! The 15 min, weekly and monthly charts are shown below:

ASX-200 15 min: note the hold above 5,200 in overnight trade:

aus20015min

XJO weekly: there is a support trend line here to watch as well:

xjoweekly

XJO monthly: any hold above 5,200 would support a bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’:

xjomonthly

TC Signals:

EUR/AUD 4hr: I noted yesterday how I had missed last Friday’s signal on the EUR/AUD. This gave around 190 pips, adding on about 90 of those in yesterday’s trade, before reversing and the LONG signal has now closed off. This pair could become a victim of chopy trade IF the US$ and EUR$ align so caution is needed here. There was a 4hr close above the key 1.49 level but not a daily close. watch for any bounce up from the 61.8% fib but, if that fails, then my inv H&S might be off the cards:

ea4

GBP/JPY 4hr: this triggered a new TC signal last night BUT has not delivered any pips. I had thought we might get a test of at least the 134 level but this has not evolved.

gj4hr

Other FX:

E/U 4hr: choppy within the daily triangle:

eu4

E/J 4hr: broke one triangle trend line and trying to form a new TC signal. I’d prefer to see the daily triangle trend line give way first though before being confident of any SHORT.

ej4

A/U daily: has bounced up off the support trend line noted in my w/e analysis:

audaily

A/J 4hr: this broke down from the triangle but has done very little:

aj4

GBP/USD 4hr: this broke up through a triangle trend line BUT note the lack of supporting momentum:

gu4

U/J 4hr: this broke down through the triangle trend line BUT note the support from the 101.5 S/R level. This is also trying for a new TC signal but I’d rather see the 101.5 give way first:

uj4

USD/CAD 4hr: note the respect of the triangle trend line here:

loonie4hr

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