Whilst the Fed’s FOMC statement was less hawkish than many commentators expected it hasn’t ruled an imminent rate hike either out or in and this has many charts reacting with an ‘as you were folks’ kind of response. With Friday bringing month-end and Saturday bringing the major Chinese Manufacturing PMI data then we have many of the same key levels to watch on most instruments. However, with the Fed shift to referencing the need to see SOME further improvement in the jobs/labor market, then this also brings next week’s NFP into focus.
EURX weekly: traders need to keep an eye on the bottom trend line and 96 level. Continued support from these two levels will help to shape a bullish basing pattern as much as the Bear Flag:
USDX weekly: we’ve had the triangle break and re-test but now we are waiting to see whether this week’s candle will confirm a bullish or failed triangle breakout and the jury is still out here. Whilst the US$ recovered on the day it’s still lower for the week:
S&P500: price is back above the Cloud today as investors cheered the status quo conditions with rates:
Gold 4hr: this has held up well and the $1,100 and $1,145 remain the levels to watch into the week’s close for month end candle:
Silver 4hr: much the same here but watch the $15 level:
Forex:
TC Signal: this didn’t advance much further than the 150 pips and has now closed off:
Other FX:
E/U: has pulled back after FOMC but the weekly Flag trend line might offer some support here:
E/U 4hr:
E/U weekly: we have had one failed breakdown here and the bottom trend line has been adjusted lower. Any close below this and the 1.045 level would support the Bear Flag potential:
E/J: this has also pulled back but the 134 remains the focus here for me:
E/J 4hr:
E/J daily: a possible H&S with 134 neck line?
A/U: bearish and holding below 0.735 but above a long term support trend line. Watch for reaction to today’s Building Approvals and RBA Stevens speech and w/e Chinese data:
A/U 4hr:
A/U weekly: the previous break and subsequent hold below 0.755 is supporting the Bear Flag scenario for now though:
A/J daily: still above recent support:
Kiwi: The 0.67 level is a major S/R level and whilst it seems that we won’t get a daily close above this key region it remains the level to watch into month end.
Kiwi 4hr:
Kiwi daily: this could chop sideways for a bit longer and develop into a Bear Flag:
Kiwi monthly: this chart shows how 0.67 has been a key S/R level and it also shows the recent bounce off major 61.8% fib support:
Cable 4hr: FOMC halted the triangle breakout:
U/J: this is back up near the key 124 level and I’m also seeing a new TC signal trying to form. Continued US$ strength would help support this but that isn’t a certainty just yet:
U/J 4hr: under the key 124 S/R level:
U/J daily: within a triangle as well:
U/J monthly: the concern here of course is that with a major ‘Cup’ shaping up under 124 then we could be in for more sideways action IF a ‘Handle’ decides to form:
Loonie 4hr: still under the key 1.30 level:
Loonie monthly: the 1.30 level remains the one to watch into the weekly close as this brings up month-end:
EUR/NZD monthly: this has been choppy of late as the monthly Doji candle reveals but it had been a great pair to track form the bounce up off the bottom wedge trend line. We’ve had a monthly wedge breakout and now a pause but this could still pullback to test the broken trend line so it may remain choppy for a bit longer:
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