Forex, Central Banks, Stocks & Earnings season

Last week:  There were a few TC signals last week but these came during my evening meaning that I missed catching these moves: E/J= 160 (open), U/J= 190 (open), A/J= 140 (closed), USD/CAD= 70 (closed) and a Gold signal from Friday of the week before = $40 (closed).

This week:

Chinese Data: there is a lot of Chinese data to impact the markets this week with CPI & PPI on Monday, Trade Balance on Wednesday and GDP and Industrial Production on Friday. The AUD and NZD pairs will be particularly sensitive to these data items.

Central Banks: two Central Banks report interest rates this week: BoC on Wednesday and BoE on Thursday.

GBP/USD: the Cable is sitting near the 1.30 support level that was last active through 1984-1985. This will be the level to watch for any make or break with this week’s BoE Interest Rate update.

Earnings season: starts this week so watch to see how results impact the major US indices as they test Bull Flag breakout levels. In fact, the S&P500, NASDAQ and DJIA weekly charts look to be showing the most subtle of bullish breakouts already. Any bullish continuation and stocks breakout could result in similar sentiment flowing into the FX market.

earnings

Gold: has held above the key $1,300 level and is now hovering under a major 5-year bear trend line near the $1,380 level so watch for any make or break from this region.

GCmonthly

AUD/USD: this pair is up trading near a major bear trend line that has been in play for over three years. Watch for any make or break here with this week’s CNY data.

EUR/AUD: this pair is trading down near a major 5-year trend line so watch for any make or break from this level.

USD/CAD: is consolidating within a triangle pattern around the key 1.30 level in the lead up to this week’s BoC rate announcement.

US$: The US$ closed higher for the week and a review of the FX Indices can be found through the following link.

Stocks and broader market sentiment:

The four major US stock indices closed higher for the week and all are testing bullish breakout levels on their various Flag patterns. Earnings season starts next week so watch to see whether any of this data helps the indices to make or break from these levels. This article about the coming Earnings season is worth a read.

I continue to watch out for further clues as to any new momentum move, long or short though! In particular I’m looking out for:

S&P500 daily chart: The index closed just out of its Flag but there isn’t a huge amount of momentum just yet. Keep an eye on the 2,135 level in coming sessions.

S&Pdaily

S&P500 weekly: The index closed with a bullish candle and just above the Bull Flag’s upper trend line but we would need to see the ADX move above 20 to support any breakout move.

S&Pweekly

NASDAQ weekly: This looks to be trying for a bullish breakout but we would need to see the ADX move above 20 to support any breakout move here too.

NASDAQweekly

DJIA weekly: ditto here.

DJIAweekly

Russell 2000 Index: this small caps index is considered a US market ‘bellwether’ and, like the other majors, is up testing Flag resistance so watch for any bullish breakout. The weekly candle was a bullish candle but we need to see momentum increase here to endorse any potential bullish breakout move.

RUTweekly

VIX Index: The ‘Fear’ index has printed a bearish candle and is back below the 14 threshold level.

VIXweekly

Oil: Continues holding above the 2009 low of $33.50 but printed a bearish weekly candle. Watch for any pullback to the $40 level to support a bullish-reversal Inverse H&S pattern.

CLweekly

Trading Calendar ‘High Impact’ data Items to watch out for:

  • Mon 11th: CNY CPI & PPI. EUR Eurogroup meetings.
  • Tue 12th: GBP Inflation Report Hearings.
  • Wed 13th: CNY Trade Balance. CAD BoC Monetary Policy Repot & Press Conference. USD Crude Oil Inventories.
  • Thurs 14th: AUD Employment data. GBP BoE Bank Rate Votes & Monetary Policy. USD PPI & Weekly Unemployment Claims.
  • Fri 15th: CNY GDP & Industrial Production. GBP BoE Gov Carney speaks & Manufacturing Sales. USD CPI, Retail Sales & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

FOREX:

E/U: The E/U consolidated within a 4hr triangle under the key 1.12 level ahead of Friday’s NFP and it’s still there today.

The 1.12 level is long-term S/R and a monthly chart-based 61.8% fib and remains the Battle Line to watch in coming sessions. Price action has chopped around either side of this 1.12 level for the last 19 months! (see monthly Cloud chart below).

The key levels to monitor on the EUR/USD continue to be:

  • 1.12:      this is a major S/R level from the monthly chart as it is the 61.8% fib of the 2000-2007 swing high move.
  • 1.15:      a recent resistance level.
  • 1.18:      this is major long term S/R level.
  • 1.22:      near the weekly 200 EMA, a previous monthly triangle trend line and it is the 50% of the weekly chart’s 2014-2015 swing low move.
  • 1.045 /1.040: the recent & longer term support levels marking the lower boundary of a potential Bear Flag.

Price is now trading below the 4hr and daily Clouds which is bearish.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish coloured ‘Inside’ candle reflecting ‘Indecision’.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair, the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines and the 1.12 level.

EUmonthly

EUmonthlyCloud

EUweekly EUdaily EU4

EUR/JPY: Price action remains below the key 115 level and the 110 level is the region being tested now. Any close and hold below 110 would have me looking for a test of the 78.6% fib down near 106.

I’ve been posting this monthly Cloud chart on and off over recent months and the bearish Kijun /Tenkan cross did prove to be a bearish signal indeed! 

EJmonthlyCloud

Price is trading below the Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly charts which is bearish.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish, essentially ‘engulfing’, candle.

  • There is an open TC SHORT signal here BUT watch the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines.

EJmonthly EJweekly EJdaily EJ4

AUD/USD: The A/U continued to hold above the key 0.74 level last week but was also consolidating within a 4hr/daily chart triangle in the lead up to Friday’s NFP. Price edged up to the top of this triangle after NFP but has yet to breakout. There is a new TC LONG signal trying to form here as well.

This 4hr/daily chart triangle trend line will be the level to watch in future sessions. There is a lot of CNY data to impact this pair next week so watch for any make or break from this trend line with this batch of data. Any bullish 4hr/daily chart triangle breakout will bring the longer-term 3 year+ bear trend line into focus. This triangle trend line is near the 0.76 level so this will be the another major level to watch next week.

Price is trading above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart which is bullish.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish candle.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair, the 4hr/daily chart’s triangle trend lines and then the 0.76 level.

AUmonthly

AUweekly AUdaily

AU4

AUD/JPY:  In my write up back in February I noted the 75 level as a major S/R level for this pair and price continues to hover near this key level.

Price is trading below the Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly chart which is bearish BUT watch for any potential bounce up from the 75 region. Any bullish continuation with stocks could drag this pair along higher too.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish coloured ‘Inside’ and ‘Spinning Top’ candle reflecting indecision.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair and the key 75 level.

AJmonthly AJweekly AJdaily AJ4

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD dipped down to the 1.30 level last week and traded just below there in the lead up to Friday’s NFP. The 1.30 level is an S/R region that was last active back in 1984/1985! The Cable closed the week just below this key level and I will be watching to see how it moves from this region with next week’s BoE Interest Rate update.

It is widely expected that the BoE will cut interest rates and one would expect then that this 1.30 level might give way.  Any monthly close or sharp move below 1.30 for July would have me looking for a test of 1.20, also S/R from 1984/5, and then 1.05 which is the 100% fib extension of the swing high move from 1985-2007. However, this pair has been under huge pressure for the last three weeks and the prospect of some sort of relief rally, even if only temporary, wouldn’t surprise either; especially if this suspected rate cut is already priced in. Thus, keep a close eye on this 1.30 level in the coming week.

Apart from this key 1.30 level I continue to watch the following:

Bullish targets above current price:

  • The 1.35 S/R level and GFC low region.
  • The 1.40 S/R level.
  • The 1.46 S/R level.
  • The descending wedge trend lines.
  • The 1.50 S/R level.
  • The 1.55 S/R level.
  • The 1.60 S/R level and also near the monthly chart’s bear triangle trend line.

Bearish targets below current price:

  • The 1.20 region is previous S/R.
  • The 1.05 region which is near the monthly chart’s 100% fib from the swing high move of 1985-2007.

Price is trading below the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly Clouds which is bearish.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish candle.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair and the 1.30 level.

GUmonthly GUweekly GUdaily GU4

GBP/NZD monthly: My data only goes back to 1987 but price action is now at its lowest level again for that time period. The GBP/NZD close the week at 1.7716 and was last down near this 1.77 level in April 2013. This could be a pair to watch in the coming week with the BoE rate announcement for any reaction around this key 1.77 support level. Any relief rally with the GBP/USD could see this pair put in a bounce up from this support; even if only temporarily.

GNmonthly

Kiwi: NZD/USD:  The NZD/USD has held above the key 0.70 S/R level for another week and broke up and out from a 4hr chart wedge pattern ahead of NFP.

The continued hold above 0.70 now has me looking for a test of the 0.75 level as this is previous S/R and near the 50% fib of the weekly chart’s 2014-2015 swing low move.

The NZD/USD is trading above the 4hr and daily Cloud.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish candle.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal on this pair and the 0.75 level.

KiwiMonthly KiwiWeekly

KiwiWeekly

KiwiDaily Kiwi4

The Yen: U/J:  The U/J closed the week right on the weekly chart’s 50% fib near 100.50 and I’m keeping an eye out for any make or break from this region.

Any bounce up from this 50% fib support and the 100, whole number psychological area would help to support a monthly/weekly chart bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern.

Price is trading below the Cloud on the 4hr & daily charts which suggests bearish U/J.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish, essentially ‘engulfing’, candle.

  • There is an open TC signal SHORT on this pair BUT watch for any bounce up from this major the 100 / 101.5 level.

UJmonthly UJweekly UJdaily UJ4

USD/CAD: The Loonie was consolidating within a triangle pattern around the 1.30 level in the lead up to Friday’s NFP and this consolidation continues now in the lead up to next week’s BoC rate statement. Momentum on the 4hr chart is currently low so watch for any potential interest rate news-inspired trend line breakout that evolves with increased momentum.

The 1.30 remains as the Battle Line for me with this pair. 

Price is trading above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily charts which is bullish.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish coloured, almost ‘Inside’ candle AND still below the major 1.30 level.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal, the 4hr chart’s triangle trend lines and the 1.30 level.

LoonieMonthly LoonieWeekly LoonieDaily Loonie4hr

EUR/AUD: The EUR/AUD remains in a monthly chart triangle but is trading down near the 5-year support trend line of this pattern. This is a key pair to watch in coming sessions for any make or break from this key S/R level. Any bearish triangle breakdown would bring various Fib levels into focus (see monthly chart below) but, also, the previous 2012 LOW down near 1.17.

There is a large amount of Chinese data this week that could impact the AUD$ and thus trigger movement on this pair and reaction at this major trend line support.

Price is trading below the Cloud on the 4hr, daily and weekly charts which is bearish.

The weekly candle closed as a bearish candle.

  • There has been a new TC SHORT signal BUT watch for any support from the triangle trend line.

EAmonthly

EAmonthly

EAweekly EAdaily EA4

AUD/NZD monthly: The June close below 1.045 was bearish and would seem to undermine the bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern. Any continued bearish sentiment could support a push down to test the 1.00 level again so watch to see how both the AUD and NZD react to this week’s CNY data:

ANmonthlyCloud

Gold:  Gold continues to hold above $1,300 buts has stalled though under the longer-term 5 year bear trend line, near the $1,380 level, and this trend line has been in play since price peaked back in 2011. This $1,380 level is the next major resistance zone for the metal to negotiate and any bullish breakout above this region would be a game changer for the metal.

The following levels remains on my radar with Gold though:

Potential Bullish targets include:

  • The monthly chart’s 5 year bear trend line:just above current price and near $1,380.
  • The weekly chart’s 2012-2015 swing low 50% fib near $1,415.
  • The weekly chart’s 2012-2015 swing low 61.8% fib near $1,500.
  • The monthly chart’s 2011-2015 swing low 61.8% fib near $1,600.

Potential Bearish targets include:

  • The bottom of the recent trading channel at $1,200.
  • The monthly chart’s 2007-2011 swing high 61.8% fib level near $1,150.

Gold is trading above the Cloud on the 4hr, daily and weekly charts which is bullish.

The weekly candle closed as a bullish candle.

  • I’m watching for any new TC signal here and the monthly chart’s 5 year bear trend line near $1,380.

GoldMonthly

GCmonthly

GoldWeekly

GCweekly

GoldDaily

GCdaily

Gold4hr

The post Forex, Central Banks, Stocks & Earnings season. appeared first on Trade Charting.

The post Forex, Central Banks, Stocks & Earnings season. appeared first on www.forextell.com.

Leave a Reply