Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
Apologies for the delay today. I had something come up, so was not able to get the report out earlier.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Data continues to undershoot expectations and this could cause to BOE to have a more dovish stance in this weeks meeting. We are sitting at a major key level and conditions are oversold, so watch for a reversal. But at this point I prefer to remain short and play the breakout.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. The pair is benefiting from risk off flows, and speculative positions in the CFTC report has turned net long for the first time in three years. The pair is also breaking below the Bollinger Band, also for the first time in 3 years. We could easily see the sell-off extend, if conditions remain risk-off.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Concerns over China see the AUD back near multi-year lows. Market type is fast so be wary of a bounce, and if possible stalk an entry on the shorter timeframes. The good payroll data from the US on Friday fans the flames.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. I am not that sure what is driving the eur at the moment. It is not always being brought on risk off. That plus the fact that we are stuck in the middle of a sideways MT, suggests it’s best to wait for now.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. NZD quickly switched from bull to bear MT last week on the back of a poor dairy auction and China concerns. If risk off continues look for a move back towards the low at .6200
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. USDCHF remains range bound though I prefer to trade it long from near .9850.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Keep buying near the bottom of the range and selling near the top.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Jobs increased in Canada in Fridays payroll report, but they were part-time, while full-time employment feel. Oil continues to get crushed and our 1.45 target remains in sight.
- Buy EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bull fast. A major key level breached here. I think a reversal presents a decent selling opportunity here, otherwise, if .7500 holds keep buying.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast . Breaching a key low here. Look to sell on the back of risk-off. One of may favorite pair for short-term traders this week. Careful of a stock market bounce.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. We sold off rapidly from the 83.00 key level and are now in fast bear mode. Similar to AUDJPY, this will be one to watch this week for short-term traders.
- Sell GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. Keep going short, very strong trend and it could well continue. Stay short.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short. This may be a good way to play the yen short longer-term. Expectations of more BOJ easing have lessened, I think that the ECB is going to need to do more. Low oil also benefits Japan, and risk-off is bearish for this pair.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is bear normal/volatile. Possibly wait now.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Breakout– MT is bull normal. Look to buy, but careful if stocks recover.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now
- Buy EUR/AUD. – MT is bull fast. Look to buy, but careful if stocks recover.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Last weeks bearish hammer played out, but wait in these volatile conditions.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy EUR/CAD. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Last weeks suggested reversal failed and we not look long. Caution advised ahead of the august high.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile . Same as AUDCAD.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell CAD/CHF. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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