I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Buy DXY Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy. Despite a period of consolidation we are holding onto the bull MT for now. The main focus for the USD at the moment is the prospect of tax reform. The challenge is that there is little certainty about the outcome due to political wrangling. Other drivers remain economic performance and monetary policy with an upcoming rate hike. Sentiment is not focusing on that yet though, with tax reform hogging the lime light.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Despite an initial sell-off after the BOE rate hike was perceived as dovish there has been no follow through. Brexit headline have failed to produce any momentum and with USD lacking conviction we are range bound.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. A weakening in US bond yields combined with a key resistance level, a sell-off in stocks and general USD malaise have seen the bull MT end and we are now in a sideways MT. The price action is suggestive of a selling opportunity. Look to sell below 113.00.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. There has not been much to support the AUD with a neutral central bank and weak data. Iron Ore has recovered slightly. Risk-off in stocks has also kept the currency pair under pressure. Continue to sell, but for shorter-term traders look for the price to trade below .7620.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. There is a minor bottoming pattern in place. The EUR is supported by good data and some positive talk from ECB officials, as well as some risk-off flows. Ultimately, its tax reform concerns that are stopping the monetary policy divergence theme from continuing to play out. Continue to sell but with caution.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite ongoing concerns about the coalition government and weak dairy prices, the Kiwi was supported by a less dovish than expected RBNZ. Risk-off did not help the pair coming into the weekend. I am lacking conviction on this short call.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. The uptrend continues, but we need to watch out for a sell-off in stocks. Continue to buy above .9900.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. A weak USD and rising Oil prices have seen the bull MT come to an end for now. Wait.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. The pair remains range bound. Wait for now.
Crosses
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is bear normal. Minor double bottom in place wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Sell.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
Other Markets
- USDSGD – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- USDCNY – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Wait Gold. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait Copper. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy Oil. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy DAX. Trend – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Buy Nikkei. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful here.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.