Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Expectations for the first rate hike may have been pushed out slightly. Technically we remain mid range so prefer to wait ahead of the fed.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. We had a breakout lower from the sideways quiet market type and with equity markets down the pair is benefiting from risk-off flows. Japan also benefits from the lower Oil price.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. We had the reversal off resistance below 74 as we mentioned in last weeks report. With risk-off and coming into potentially the first rate hike by the fed in a decade the momentum is do the downside. Technically we want to wait for a bear market type before entering, Though longer-term traders may want to enter now after the formation of a bearish engulfing week off resistance.
- Buy EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Risk-off and lower oil should benefit the euro. Technically we have a bearish piercing candlestick pattern off 1.10, so caution advised. EUR will possibly be a better buy against crosses this week.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is bull normal. While the bull normal MT continues to hold despite a rate cut last week, but we have a topping formation with a bearish engulfing on Friday. Risk-off is bearish this pair too.
- Sell USD/CHF. – MT is bear normal. Price action and risk-off suggest the pair will head lower. Double top formation still in play, though I do expect downside to be limited.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Range trading persists. Buying ok at these levels, but safer around 1.0750
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. A nice breakout from the sideways quiet MT on the back of lower oil and more downbeat reports expected next week which will continue to pressure CAD. Buy dips.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bull normal. There is a an initial selling opportunity with the formation of an evening star pattern. But we are still technically in a bull MT so a trade only for the brave.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is fast bear. This is a good short if the markets continue to sell-off this week. Best traded on lower timeframes in a fast MT. Also note the big bearish engulfing week.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. There is a bit of a topping formation in place off support at 83, but we are mid range now so not a low-risk short. Could be traded on lower time-frames similar to AUDJPY.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. We have had several failed attempts to break lower. If stock markets bounce, this pair could be a good buy, if they sell off then expect lows to be broken.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is bull normal. MT a bit tricky to define on this pair so possibly best to stay away.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Reversal– MT is sideways normal. There is quite a nice reversal pattern off support with a couple of bullish engulfing candles. A nice buy.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. A nice sell signal was generated last week after the RBNZ cut rates, but I think we need to make sure equities bounce before getting short.
- Sell AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Best to wait for now
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Bullish engulfing week in place for longer-term traders.
- Buy AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is fast bull. Buy, but sitting at resistance and fast MT can reverse quickly too. Trade on lower timeframes.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. – MT is fast bull. If you have time to go to a lower timeframe and stalk a short this could be a very good way to play a taper tantrum (markets selling off) combined with lower oil.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is fast bull. Look to buy, but be careful of a reversal.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is fast bear. Look to sell but careful of a bounce. Similar to EURCAD.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait, but note the big bullish engulfing week for a long-term trade.
- Waiting GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is fast bear. Sell but wait for bounce.
- Waiting NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Trend– MT is bear fast. Last weeks reversal played out, continue short.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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