I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Long GBP/USD. Trend – MT is sideways normal. We had a weekly bullish engulfing suggesting momentum is to the upside. It will be a busy week of data next week in the UK. The call is long as the weekly engulfing candle is significant but do so with caution as the market type is mixed across time-frames.
- Long USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. We had a sell-off last week on BOJ Kuroda’s comment that the Yen had fallen enough though they were no different than what he said when the market was at 1.19 so we suggest the reaction was overdone. He is more concerned about the speed of the decent than the decent itself. Look to continue to buy.
- Waiting AUD/USD – MT is sideways normal. Market type has turned sideways. RBA minutes this week which are expected to be dovish in contrast to the FOMC minutes which we expect will provide more guidance that we will see a rate hike by the Fed in September.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. Price action remained mixed and the news flow remains about Greece where negotiations are deteriorating. EUR has been supporting by a rise in German Bund yields that has been quite rapid. Merkal commented that the EUR should be lower on Friday, but after an initial sell-off the market recovered the losses.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to look short after the RBNZ cut rates last week. This came as a surprise and the pair gaped lower by 100+pips.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Mixed price action suggests we wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . Sideways market continues to play out.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Last week we mentioned a minor double top that played out and lead to a sell off in the pair. The recovery has been weak, but the bull normal market type is just holding. We may see the market type turn sideways this coming week.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. Sideways volatile continues to play out. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is fast bear. Look to sell but keep stops tight in this market type as the reversals can be sudden.
- Long GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is strong bull. Continue to buy this trend.
- Long EUR/JPY. Trend– MT is bull normal. Price action was mixed last week forming a minor double top but had some bullish momentum to finish the week. The bull market continues to hold so look to buy.
- Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is fast bull. Continue to buy, keep trailing stops tight in this market type.
- Long EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is fast bull. Continue to buy, keep trailing stops tight in this market type
- Long AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is sideways normal. Last weeks double top failed due to the RBA cutting rates. Look long now but keep stops tight.
- Long EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is strong bull. Saw a minor double top form last week. It is not off any resistance so buying will be the plan.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Last weeks call to go short failed after some initial momentum and the market type has turned sideways.
- Waiting EUR/CAD -MT is bull volatile. We have a bullish engulfing day off the bottom of the recent range so a brave trader can look to buy here, but the market type is volatile so it could easily fail. Prefer to wait.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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