Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Not much new to add here. The BOE left rates unchanged and further turmoil in financial markets keeps the pair under-pressure. Of course caution advised in these fast markets as the reversal (when it happens) is likely to be sharp.
- Sell USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. The pair continues to benefit from risk-off flows with 116 in sight.
- Sell AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Aussie making new multi-year lows on Friday. The pair continues to feel pressure from falling stock markets, and China.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Still not that comfortable trading the EUR at the moment. I do think that the ECB will need to do more easing this year and Europe’s stock markets are looking quite bearish, both which will be negative EUR. Just waiting for now.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear fast. Risk-off in global stocks is bearish for the pair and we it is likely we will see export prices falls. Continue to sell, but cautious of the daily bullish hammer off support. NZD showing some signs of reversing on crosses.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Slowly grinding higher. Look to buy dips and then sell near the top of the range. Rinse and repeat with a wide stop.
- Sell EUR/CHF. Reversal – MT is bull normal. Technically we have broken out into a little bull, but we have had a busted breakout and I expect the wider sideways MT to persist in this environment. Long-term I still like the pair much higher.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Oil crushed and CAD crushed. The 1.45 target previously mentioned was blasted through. Careful in this MT, don’t let gains disappear in a sudden reversal. Looking forward, 1.50 should not be a surprise.
- Buy EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bull fast. We saw a failed bearish hammer at the end of the last week. Possibly best to wait for a pull-back to enter, but certainly we are in bull mode now that resistance at 75 has been overcome.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. After chopping around last week, the pair eventually broke lower on Friday. Continue short.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. Sitting at a little bit of support here, but otherwise the bear MT is intact so continue short.
- Sell GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear fast. Broke though key 168.00 support, and not much in the way to stop the pair heading lower.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue short. Still like this pair short, and think it may eventually play catch up to the other JPY pairs.
- Sell CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continues to be an excellent way to play risk-off and the fall in oil prices.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. There is an interesting bearish engulfing pattern in the sideways MT. This could be a good play if stocks recover considering NZD is showing signs of strength against other pairs.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy but wait for a bullish reversal as the two bearish hammers suggest some downside.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. There was a nice sideways quiet MT breakout last week, unfortunately Fridays risk-off put paid to the idea.
- Buy EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Continue to buy.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now. Bearish pin candle suggest some downside. But am super wary.
- Buy EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Last weeks breakout was successful, continue long, but way of the Fast MT
- Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile . Bullish engulfing suggests this might be a good play if you like buying the kiwi.
- Sell GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bear fast. Continue to sell.
- Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear fast. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend– MT is bear normal. Careful here with the long wicks on the candles suggesting we may be finding support.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear fast. Continue to sell.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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