Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. The dollar index is oscillating around the key 92 level. The main event for the dollar this week is the FOMC meeting where market participants expect the Federal Reserve to engage in quantitative “tightening”. They may also signal that they will look to hike rates in December, with the odds of a hike currently sitting around even. Data has not been the best and with two hurricanes to contend with, the Fed may take a more cautious tone. North Korea fired another missile over Japan, and while market action was muted, the ongoing tensions could continue to weigh on the dollar.
- Buy GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Sterling has been on a tear after both an inflation beat and crucially a change in stance by the BOE that saw the chance of a rate hike this year shoot up to 66% from 12%. The BOE has clearly shifted into a more hawkish stance and we can expect the pair to continue to rise as market participants adjust.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Despite geopolitical tensions with North Korea, the rising US bond yields and new highs in stocks have seen USDJPY bounce off the key 108 level forming a bullish engulfing candle pattern and we are close to a bull MT. Look to buy a close over 111.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is bull normal. Despite good employment numbers the price action in the AUD remains mixed. We have a minor double top in place and iron ore and gold price have been falling. The outlook is mixed and I prefer to wait for now.
- Buy EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We had the sell-off from the 1.20 level as expected but it has not been enough to knock the pair out of the bull MT. Little data was out for the Eurozone last week and with EURGBP selling and the dollar index at major support the EURO has struggled to rise. Still a buy, but lower conviction.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Kiwi was strong on Friday but remains range bound. With a possible change of government after the 23 of September election on the cards and with a central bank whom has said they will intervene in the currency, we may well remain range bound for now. We also have a dairy action to note on the 19th, prices rose at the last auction slightly.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. We bounced for a third time off major support at 0.9450 and formed a large bullish reversal pattern. This is indicative of further upside, but we want to see a close above 0.9700 to confirm the bull MT. Fundamentally, the SNB remains extremely dovish and would like to see the Franc weaken further.
- Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. While the bear trend remains intact, the pair consolidated for all of last week. There are no bottoming signs in place as yet and we can expect the sell off to continue, in particular if oil holds above the $50 mark and the FOMC meeting next week is dovish.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear fast. Our contrarian trade continues to play out. With the change in tone from the BOE it puts the BOE on track to raise rates before the ECB and the market is adjusting.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bull fast. Look to buy.
- Buy EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy
- Buy CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull fast. Continue to buy.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.
- Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Buy GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Contine to sell.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull fast. Look to buy.
- Buy CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but be careful of a reversal here.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Look to sell.
- Buy Gold. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful as we look to be turning sideways here.
- Buy Oil. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy DAX. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.