Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. Sideways volatile market types continues. More indicate or BOE raising rates this year but this is being offset by a similar expectation or a rate rise by the Fed.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal/ volatile. Weekly charts suggest long, but daily charts are mixed so prefer caution.
- Short AUD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue with our short approach.
- Short EUR/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Greek news should be confined to the sidelines for awhile and the focus come back to the differing trajectories of central banks. ECB on a easing path while the Fed on a tightening path.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue with the short strategy here. There are expectations of a rate cut from the RBNZ this week. Be careful around the event as the market will be surprised if there is no cut.
- Long USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. breaking out of the range and could have a fair way to go. This could be a decent long-term position to scale into. With the Greece debt issue on the sidelines CHF may not see the safehaven flows that have perhaps been keeping it range bound.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . Sideways market type is persisting.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is strong bull. Rate cut last week saw a sharp rise is this pair. Oil was also down 4% last week putting further pressure on the CAD. We are getting close to the 3008 high which should act as a magnet.
- Short EUR/GBP. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Check the weekly chart for a strong breakout from a sideways MT. Rate expectations likely weighing on this currency pair too.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is bear normal. MT is still just bear normal but could be turning sideways. The weekly chart gives me pause as we have bounced off major support and candlesticks are indicating indecision.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. We are now in clear space on this pair continue short.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now on this pair
- Long GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is fast bull. Keep stops relatively tight in this market type.
- Short EUR/NZD. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. There is a technical short here, though fundamentals are negative on both pairs. You may want to wait for a bearish week to confirm, otherwise small position only.
- Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. We have a bullish engulfing week, but daily MT is sideways volatile. We are also sitting at resistance. These factors make this a lower conviction trade.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Could be in for more downside but wait for now as we see a bearish engulfing on the weekly charts.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Watch for a breakout this week. Could be a decent technical short here.
- Long GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is fast bull. Keep stops tight in this market type, and wary of a small pin candle formed on Friday.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, though shorts preferred.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now
- Short CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is bear normal. But turning sideways so prefer to wait.
- Long GBP/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. Look to buy
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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