Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. A large bearish candle on Friday (which also formed a bearish weekly hammer) suggests a sell. Data has not been great out of the UK in the past week and which is making traders think that rate hikes in the UK might come after the US has already made 2 or 3.
- Buy USD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. We have a minor double top in place, but with the uptrend still intact buying a dip is an appropriate strategy.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. We transitioned out of a bear into a sideways MT last week. AUD is also showing strength on the crosses (where some decent opportunities lie) and ignored what was a bad week for copper so best to wait for now. In addition the RBA is sounding more optimistic than other central banks.
- Sell EUR/USD. – MT is bear normal. The EUR’s downtrend was fueled by comments from Draghi and it would not be surprising to see the EUR down near 1.05 soon.
- Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite a bounce last week, we have a “busted breakout” (failed attempt to push through resistance and the key .66oo level) on Friday with the formation of a bearish hammer. Data is still mixed to poor out of NZ at the moment.
- Buy USD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. We are at key resistance but the initial sell-off was brought and no clear reversal signal as yet. Continue to buy.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Bearish doji on Thursday suggests we may head back down towards 1.0750.
- Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Fundamentals are suffering in Canada due to the low oil prices and we have a bullish engulfing candle in a bull market type suggesting a buy.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bear normal. We still have a little bit of bottoming price action going on here, but the downtrend is still intact. Don’t be surprised if we see a bounce as the pair is quite oversold.
- Buy AUD/JPY. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy , but we cautious of a reversal here off resistance.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Weekly charts remain bearish, and a hammer on Friday suggests a sell, but prefer to wait for break below the lower Bollinger Band before entering.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. With price action mixed prefer to wait for now.
- Sell EUR/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Last weeks reversal failed and we now look to go short.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/NZD. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Look to go short, but kiwi is weak against the other currencies so lower conviction.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Another failed reversal pattern last week, so we now look to buy.
- Sell EUR/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell, bearish momentum is strong.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Buy AUD/CAD. Breakout – MT is fast bull. The long-term reversal pattern I mentioned a while back continues to play out. Look to buy, but safest on a pull-back.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue short, but MT turning sideways so careful.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Sell CHF/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell for a move below 120.
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but preferably on a dip.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy AUD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. look to buy.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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