Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. There has been a change in sentiment toward the GBP. Bad data has been consistently ignored which is quite a bullish sign. There have also been gains in the polls from those who want the UK to stay in the EU (this is my base case). Technically there is a head and shoulders bottom in play with a close above 1.4400 needed to confirm the upside. We are pressing this level so stalk a break this coming week.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. On Friday we saw an over 2% rise on the USDJPY on the back of news that the BOJ may consider negative lending rates in the meeting next week (a form of additional stimulus). While this is unlikely to actually do much for the economy, it was enough make jumpy JPY longs (like me) run for cover. We now have quite a mixed fundamental and technical picture on the pair so I think waiting for clarity is the order of the day. My long-term call is we see 200 vs. the USD and I will be initiating positions that fit that view when more appropriate.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. We had a bullish breakout of the sideways MT that failed last week, and are now back in the range. Weekly charts are still bullish, so we don’t really want to be initiating shorts here. Possibly look to buy a dip but watch stocks and the crosses to confirm direction. Better opportunities to buy AUD on the crosses I think.
- Sell EUR/USD. Trend – MT is sideways normal. The ECB did not say too much at the meeting last week. A weekly evening star pattern off the edge of the sideways MT suggests a move back towards 1.08 or lower is possible. We are not quite yet in bear normal MT territory but we are breaking below recent lows. Continue short.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is bull volatile. A bearish hammer confirms a busted breakout on the weekly charts. The opportunities are now to look short, but we want the daily MT to turn bearish first so a bit of patience required. We have the RBNZ’s interest rate review this week. A dovish statement will support the case for further downside. Some good opportunities to sell NZD on crosses.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. We should see the pair move higher in sympathy with a lower EUR this week, but for now the MT is sideways volatile so best to wait.
- Buy EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. We have broken out into a bull normal MT, but the breakout is not strong. Buy but with caution.
- Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. There was no accord to freeze oil production at last weeks Doha meeting. This saw both oil and the CAD gap down dramatically on the open. But losses were quickly reversed and the establish trend continues. This was supported by positive retail sales data out of Canada surprising the market. Continue to sell with no support in sight.
- Sell EUR/GBP. – MT is bear fast. The switch in sentiment towards both the GBP and EUR saw a large sell off in the pair last week. We flipped all the way from bull to bear MT in the space off a week. Look short but caution is advised given the speed of the move. Note that the weekly MT is now volatile.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Still no clear direction here. Wait for now.
- Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Sitting mid range, wait for now.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. Stay out in this MT, but I do think there will be a good case to buy this pair after it has properly bottomed.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. We have a double bottom forming on this pair but we are now sitting mid range so best to wait.
- Buy CAD/JPY. Breakout– MT is bull normal. Breaking out into a bull normal MT.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. The pair looks like it is starting to bottom, wait for now.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is bear volatile. We may now see the pair transition into a bull MT, in particular if we see GBPUSD break above 1.44. One to watch as it could have a fair amount of upside.
- Wait EUR/NZD. – MT is bear normal. But we are at the bottom of a wider sideways MT. Wait for now.
- Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Another one to watch. Look for a break above 1.1300. This is a good option unless AUDUSD turns bearish.
- Sell EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal. Look short but wait for a break below 1.44 as we are at support.
- Sell GBP/AUD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell but lower conviction now. A tiny little double bottom is in place.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
- Sell GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell but lower conviction.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Breakout– MT is bear normal. Great breakout pattern here. Sell at market with a stop above 0.88
- Buy GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. Similar to EURGBP. There is also a monthly reversal pattern I am tracking to add to the bull case.
- Buy CAD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull fast. Look to buy, but caution required in this MT.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy AUD/CHF. Trend– MT is bull normal. Similar to EURAUD. Wait for a break above 0.76.
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Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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