Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 28 June 2015

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I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Long GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Last week we had the reversal day that was anticipated. This lead to a short-term sell-off but the bull market remains intact. There is some sentiment that the BOE may raise rates sooner than anticipated in the UK based on better than expected data. I expect we may see the market turn sideways for a while pending NFP on Thursday (Friday is a holiday).
  • Long USD/JPY. Trend – MT is sideways normal. But on the weekly chart we have a small bullish engulfing candle. Go long but with caution.
  • Waiting AUD/USD –  MT is sideways normal. We had china cut rates this weekend. While this is theory i AUD bullish, it is a sign that China is not in a good condition. It’s most recent challenge is a 19% fall in the stock market in 2 weeks and I’m these sorts of things can breed all sorts of issues. Instability is high. My preferred strategy is a wait for a break-out lower.
  • Waiting  EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. We have had so many “brink of defaults” in Greece it is hard to tell what’s what. Basically Greece may miss a debt repayment this week to the IMF and it has called a referendum next Sunday for the Greek people on the EU’s terms. This is decidedly negative as the Greek PM will be campaigning for a “no” vote. We have a bearish engulfing on the weekly chart suggesting a short but we need to wait to see what happens on the open. Momentum should be to the downside for now.
  • Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue with our short strategy. Nothing really stopping us from continuing with this approach for now.
  • Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Last week quickly reversed the bear market back into a sideways market. I think we will see more money flow into CHF until the Greek crisis is over. Long-term my view is the CHF is very overvalued and when sentiment changes we could see is much much weaker.
  • Waiting EUR/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal . Sideways market continues to play out. Stay Away
  • Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. We had a long opportunity off the edge last week. In my haste (I was travelling last week) I missed it in this report – sorry about that. MT remains sideways so I would wait for now.
  • Waiting EUR/GBP.   – MT is sideways volatile. Sideways volatile continues to play out. I expect we will see this much lower, but the market type is a little tricky for me as we could see a reversal off 0.7050. We could also see a bear market break out. This will be interesting to watch.
  • Waiting  AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
  • Short  NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short.
  • Long GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is normal bull. Had a minor double top last week but not worth a short as it was in mid-air and not off a key level. Keep looking long.
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bull. Continue to go long but with caution of a double top forming here.
  • Waiting  EUR/NZD. – MT is bull normal. But we have had a bearish engulfing candle from off key weekly resistance and need to wait for the open regarding Greece. If anything I prefer shorts here.
  • Short AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is bull normal. But we had a reversal candle off key weekly support a a minor double top form suggesting a small short position could be worth taking here. Careful though as a sideways market type could easily form.
  • Waiting EUR/AUD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Waiting AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
  • Long GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We could easily see a sideways market form here or a sell off so trade with caution.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.  -MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Short NZD/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short.
  • Waiting CAD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait but do prefer longs.
  • Waiting CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait but do prefer longs.

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Jim Langlands

Economic calendar for the week ahead:

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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