Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We have a weekly doji at a key level which could be the first sign of a new upwards phase for the currency pair. We may also see a positive surprise in the BOE’s super Thursday meeting with a less dovish than anticipated tone. Very good risk reward buying opportunities in this maket type near key levels so stalk a buy.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Equity markets are showing some bullish technical signs which will support the pair if there is follow though. Japanese data has not been that great which is also bullish for the pair. Prefer to watch equity markets and trade a break both ways.
- Waiting AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways price action continues with the currency pair only moderately responsive to risk sentiment. Long-term still see more downside in the pair but short-term a move higher should be expected.
- Waiting EUR/USD.– MT is sideways normal. Sideways MT continues but we may well see the pair come under pressure from a recovery in equities and deflationary conditions in the Eurozone paving the way for more easing. Note there is mixed views on this from analyst – some of whom see deflationary conditions giving way to inflation next year.
- Waiting NZD/USD. – MT is sideways quiet. We are seeing some strength on NZD pairs on the crosses and are looking like we may see a breakout higher. The pair may be bottoming on improved risk sentiment, dairy prices, and the poor NFP numbers in the US which is likely to push a rate hike out till next year. While we may see some temporary upside long-term the pressure remains to the downside against the USD, though there may be some longer-term opportunity to buy NZD on the crosses.
- Waiting USD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. The sideways MT remains with attempts to break lower being brought. A recovery in equity markets could be the catalyst to push the pair higher.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The sideways MT continues so look to buy near the bottom of the range.
- Waiting USD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. We have a double top in place after a failed breakout. The sideways MT is just holding for now. Oil is mixed, but we may be seeing a response to both a more hawkish BOC and the poor NFP which is pushing out rate expectations for the US.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. We have a busted breakout off a major key level. Look short.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Two hammers, one in each direction, signal further indecision, but the risk is to the upside with equities signaling a move higher.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Watch for a breakout to the upside.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. We are seeing some bullish signs from these levels, but would prefer a clearer buy signal considering support has not yet been taken out.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Stuck in the middle of the range wait for now.
- Short GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. The bear market continues so look short.
- Short EUR/NZD. Breakout– MT is sideways quiet. A bearish engulfing after a bullish hammer signals we could be breaking out lower as we have a close below the lower Bollinger Band. We also have a bearish engulfing week after taking out the 2012 resistance level at 1.81. Fundamentally the trade could benefit from a risk-on environment and it will be attractive as investors can earn carry.
- Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Near the bottom of the range, wait for a reversal signal to buy.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. We had a busted breakout last week, but the risk/reward is not good for a short entry just now.
- Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Short GBP/CAD.– MT is bear normal. Interesting price patterns here. We have a break below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern with a cross below the daily ichimoku cloud. Fundamentally, the trade requires caution in case of a more hawkish than expected BOE this week and a recovery in oil is needed to support the CAD leg of the trade.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait for now.
- Short NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. The long breakout is showing signs of failure and has generated a short entry. Expect the trade to continue to chop around, so trade with lower conviction.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. Wait for now.
- Waiting CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now, stalk a buy off the edge.
- Waiting CAD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Look for a long breakout.
- Waiting NZD/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. A new entry to the report. NZDCHF is lining up for a long-term buy. NZD could be the best bet for a risk-on recovery. It has less exposure to China than the AUD and the market tends not to understand GDT auctions very well, so focus on the improving numbers. On the other side of the trade the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep monetary policy extremely easy until they are closer to 1.20 against the EUR. The pair has bounced off 2011 support at 58.00 and has now crossed above the daily ichimoku cloud. A break of the sideways MT would signal a buy. The pair could well chop around so a position building strategy should be employed with the goal of creating a risk-free trade. The trade could also be done as a basket, with the risk split across EURNZD and CADCHF on respective signals on those pairs.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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