Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY – MT is sideways normal. There are a number of factors impacting the dollar at the moment. Firstly we had a poor NFP number of Friday, but the dollar index rose. North Korea fired a missile over Japan which was a risk-off event, but the USDJPY quickly recovered to trade higher. Hurricane Harvey hit the US, though the market shows little concern. In a months time the U.S. Government will shut down if the debt ceiling is not extended (it will be at the last minute). President Trump is talking tax reform. Despite the fundamentals and seemingly funny price action, for those that follow technical analysis it should be no surprise. The moves can be explained by supply and demand as we are bouncing off the key .92 support level (and 1.20 on the EURUSD), where typically a lot of supply sits and where traders look to take profit and reverse positions. I suggest waiting for now and a break above .94 looks like a juicy contrarian buy.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Some decent data out of the UK and USD weakness has helped the Pound despite ongoing concerns around Brexit negotiations. Wait for now.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Japan issued a J-Alert to it’s citizens telling them to take cover after North Korea fired a missile over Japan as part of it’s ongoing missile tests and blustering. This is not unprecedented, but in the current environment which tensions are quite high it was very provocative. It could also be seen as avoiding a missile test in the region of the US territory of Guam (I.e. it’s a way to continue to posture while deescalating from any serious confrontation with the US). Initially, USDJPY sold off heavily on the news, but was brought back off major support just as quickly and ended in positive territory the week. It rose on Friday after the jobs data, possibly because US bond yields rose too. I like to buy above 111.00.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Aussie remains range bound with rising metal prices and USD weakness supporting the pair. This week we have RBA who have been expressing concerns about the high currency. Any chance in stance, in particular a bout of hawkishness could push the pair into a bull MT.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. After the breakout last week the pair has been sold off the key 1.20 level and is back in a sideways MT. Of note, some news came out on Friday regarding the ECB’s concerns that the currency is too strong. This was unconfirmed news so it needs to be taken with a gain of salt. But the price action quite clearly suggests that waiting is the best course of action for now.
- Sell NZD/USD. – MT is bear normal. The RBNZ has talked about intervention and changed their language to concern about the high value of the NZD. Data in NZ has not been good either and there are concerns around growth and inflation with the government cutting forecasts on both. Despite the USD weakness, NZDUSD remains a clear sell.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Last weeks breakout saw a move below the 0.9450 major support level, but it was rapidly brought on the easing of risk-off tensions. We have a major bottom in place but ideally we want to trade above .98 to confirm the bull MT.
- Sell USD/CAD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We got the hoped for break of 1.24 at the end of last week. The Canadian economy has been out-performing and another rate hike is on the cards. Keep selling.
- Sell EUR/GBP. Contrarian – MT is bull normal. We have reversed off major resistance at 0.92 and with the failure of the Euro to hold the 1.20 level, contrarian shorts are in play.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. Wait.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy, but careful of topping action here.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell EUR/CAD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal.Continue to sell.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy Gold. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait T-Notes – MT is bull normal. Reversing off major resistance, buy on dip only.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.