Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 6 April 2015 by Sam Eder

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I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. There has been a long breakout signal on the 4 hour chart after NFP… GBP has the uncertainty of the upcoming election to deal with, though once that is done the focus may go back onto the stronger (than the rest) fundamentals. Note that the key weekly support level at 1.48 is still in play
  • Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. We are in the downward phase of the sideways volatile. We could be heading to 1.15 though some of the analysis I read expect the JPY to under-perform this week. Again prefer to wait for a strong signal in this choppy market type.
  • Waiting  AUD/USD  –  MT is sideways volatile. We are at the bottom of the range and a weak bullish pattern has formed. If you are short continue to hold, but with less conviction. The market may already have priced in the likelihood of a cut to interest rates this week. Long-term remain bearish the AUD.
  • Wating EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile turning normal. Resistance at 1.1050 is still in play. My view remains short the EUR against the USD, but it would not surprise me at all to see a recovery back much higher than what people expect. If you look at the crosses sentiment is getting long EUR, and the COT report suggests that speculators are heavily short EUR, meaning people may need to unwind shorts if the price heads higher, and it would take a significant catalyst to add more shorts to the trade in my humble opinion… My macro view is still very short EUR and long USD over the long-term.
  • Waiting NZD/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. We had a mid-range bullish reversal last week, again after a poor economic report NZD is strengthening. This is quite a bullish sign, when bad news is ignored…
  • Short  USD/CHF. Trend– MT is bear normal (though it’s debatable as it could be a sideways volatile). An important support level is holding at .9480. Be careful on your shorts until this level is breached. Still very bullish on this long-term. Also as noted last week, SNB still seem to be preparing the market for intervention in eurchf.
  • Short EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Be very very wary of going short this pair as the SNB are making noises which could be preparing the market for more intervention. A little bit of a bottoming formation going on here?
  • Waiting  USD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Looking long off the edge, once it is breached. Iran negotiations could be bearish CAD if sanctions are eased/lifted and Iranian Oil hits the market increasing supply.
  • Waiting EUR/GBP.  – MT is bullish?/ Sideways Volatile. We have a volatile market type here.
  • Short  AUD/JPY. MT is bear normal. Look short.
  • Waiting NZD/JPY  – MT is volatile sideways . MT is mixed across timeframes and is a little messy…
  • Short GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is strong bear. Look short
  • Waiting EUR/JPY. –  MT is sideways normal. Prefer to look for a breakout long.
  • Short GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bear. Go short.
  • Short EUR/NZD. Trend- MT is normal bear. Keep going short, but MT is turning sideways so be careful.
  • Short AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bear. but support is in the way. NZ cricket team did not perform as well as the NZD here last week! Looking for a move toward parity…
  • Long EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is turning fast bull. Looks like a reversal off weekly support could be in play? If you want to be long the EUR this could be a decent trade with plenty of upside. Sentiment is favoring EUR over AUD at the moment. (Same comments here as last week). Be careful of entering during a fast MT.
  • Waiting GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Got the pullback discussed last week. Possibly will see the price head back up to 1.98
  • Short  AUD/CAD. Trend–  MT is fast bear. Keep going short.
  • Short GBP/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue going short.
  • Waiting EUR/CAD.  -MT is sideways normal. Wait for some clarity.

Analysis to read:

Marc Chandler

Kiron Sarkar – I am very sorry to say that Kiron passed away last week. He was an excellent analyst, and by all accounts an even more excellent person ( I did not know him). Rest in peace Kiron.

Jim Langlands

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is a co-owner of Forex Signal Provider www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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