I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Short GBP/USD. Reversal – MT is a bull/ sideways volatile. Still the weekly selling patterns dominate suggesting further weakness. Prefer shorts but with caution.
- Long USD/JPY. Trend – MT is strong bull. This is a high conviction buy. NFP created further momentum for us on Friday.
- Short AUD/USD Trend– MT is strong bear. Another high conviction trade, but be wary of support.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. Last week we mentioned to be cautious as weak reversal pattern had formed. This reversal proved to be the case and the currency pair reverted into a sideways market type. Note that the weekly selling signal is still in play, but I prefer to wait for a clearer signal.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue with our short approach.
- Long USD/CHF. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. The weekly market type is very much sideways, but our bullish reversal call is still in play until 92.80 is broken. Note I have a long macro bias, otherwise I would probably be staring clear of this for now as the technical picture is mixed.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . We had the anticipated strong reversal and the market has settled into a sideways market type.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Very interesting just now. We had a wild ride on Friday with CAD jobs report outperforming then NFP out performing and to top that off oil was up strongly. We have a minor triple top on the daily charts (I say minor as it is not off any previous resistance). We have been long this currency pair for a while in this report. Shorter-term traders might be advised to take most of the position off here. Longer term traders certainly will want to protect some profits, but continue to hold a position. Analysts are still suggesting that conditions in Canada will continue to deteriorate over the longer-term and the macro picture favors a bullish case.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. Sideways volatile continues to play out. Wait for now.
- Waiting AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Continue to wait.
- Waiting NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. MT turned sideways this week, but the short bias remains.
- Long GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Keeps buying. This has been a great trade since we went long in this report. Hopefully some people have been on it.
- Long EUR/JPY. Breakout – MT is strong bull. We shifted to a buy during the week last week. Interestingly my traders see a head and shoulders pattern dominating on this currency pair with a suggested target of 1.47, though a re-test of 1.37 would not be surprising.
- Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Long EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bull normal. Continue to look long. There has been a reversal candle form off resistance, but it looks a bit lonely out there on it’s own. We may see some sideways price action and then a reversal eventually off this level but continue to look long now.
- Short AUD/NZD. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. A double top has formed with a bearish engulfing candle off resistance. A good technical set-up though fundamentals don’t favor either currency pair.
- Long EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is strong bull. Continue to look long.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Almost had a double top form here on the weekly charts, but price reversed all that on Thursday after weak data out of Australia. Stay long but with caution until the resistance is cleared.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait but fundamentals now supportive of shorts.
- Short GBP/CAD. Reversal – MT is bull volatile. Similar to the USDCAD but with a stronger candlestick reversal pattern on both daily and weekly charts. It not one of the core pairs I trade but price action is suggestive of a reversal so calling it short. I prefer CADJPY longs though (which I have not been covering in this report sorry). Be super careful about picking a top like this not off any major level. Scale-ins as a goes down.
- Waiting EUR/CAD -MT is bull volatile. Huge key reversal day on Friday makes me favor shorts, but as it is not off resistance I prefer to wait.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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