Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 7 Mar 16

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Wait GBP/USD.  – MT is bear volatile. Perhaps concerns around Brexit are easing, which combined with a weaker USD, has lead to a solid bounce in GBP. Technically this has completed a bullish weekly railroad track formation. On the daily timeframe the speed of the bounce means we need to be patient and wait for an entry.  Overall I do prefer to be buying but more downside would not surprise me too much either.
• Wait USD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Risk-on in stocks is buoying the pair. Again, further downside should not be a surprise (nor should upside be a surprise). Wait and look to trade the breakout either way.
• Buy AUD/USD.  Trend –  MT is bull fast. Positive data and improvements in the price of gold and iron ore, have pushed the pair above the significant .7380 key level. Watch for a reversal here, but if that does not eventuate look to buy this week.
• Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways volatile. Technically, we can expect the pair to head higher/ trade sideways and if the ECB disappoints it will strengthen the bullish outlook. Long-term view remains very bearish and the euro area economic outlook is not pretty, but for now patience is the name of the game.
• Buy NZD/USD. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Look to buy the breakout with low conviction. Economic data is not great, but I think capital is flowing into the pair as can be seen by the very bullish NZ stock market. In a small economy like NZ, it does not take a lot of excess demand to move the price around, and NZ makes a nice target for investors moving money out of China.
• Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Not too much new to add fundamentally here. A breakout higher on bullish stocks and/or decisive action by the ECB is worth stalking. One of my highest conviction long-term buys if we get a good entry.
• Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is bull volatile. Wait for now.
• Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell on the back of a rising oil price (though I think “rising” is temporary).
• Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. This is interesting if you like reversals. A weekly bearish hammer has formed a minor double top. I quite like as a contrarian sell, in anticipation of ECB on march 10th, with a risk/reward of nearly 4:1 depending on where you put your stop.
• Buy AUD/JPY.  Trend – MT is bull fast. Look to buy, as stocks recover.
• Buy NZD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Look for a breakout into a bear normal MT next week. Coming off a major key level this presents a decent opportunity if stocks head higher.
• Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is bear volatile. Weekly bullish engulfing suggests at least some temporary upside.
• Wait EUR/JPY.  –  MT is bear volatile. Two weekly hammers suggest downside is limited for now. I would switch a short EUR view into selling EURGBP.
• Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait  CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continuing to sell but with low conviction.
• Sell EUR/NZD.  – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Classic candlestick reversal pattern in sideways volatile MT. Possibly split your risk across this NZDCHF,  and NZDJPY.
• Sell EUR/AUD.  Trend  – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell. Watch price action on AUDUSD carefully for signs of a reversal.
• Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait AUD/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Sell GBP/CAD. –  MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell EUR/CAD.  –  MT is sideways normal. Look to sell.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is bear volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait but watch for longer-term buy. Bouncing off a key level.
• Buy CAD/CHF.  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Buy NZD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Breaking out, look to buy.
• Buy AUD/CHF. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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