Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 8 August 2016

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

Majors

• Wait DXY  – MT is sideways normal. The main event for the dollar last week was non-farm payrolls. The number beat expectations adding 255K jobs showing the US economy remains one of the best among it’s pairs. While the USD strengthened on the event and traders have priced in a greater chance of a rate hike this year, the market’s response was unconvincing with only small gains made. Watch this week for a continuation of the move. If we don’t get the continuation then we have a divergence between price and news, which in this case is a dollar bearish sign.
• Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The BOE surpassed expectations with it’s policy package on Thursday, delivering a 0.25% rate cut and increasing stimulus. GBP sold off across the board and so far the market has held onto the gains. I like to sell GBP vs. the crosses and wait for a confirmed break below the lower Bollinger Band before shorting the currency vs. USD.
• Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. While I the pair may continue to take out the 100 key level, the real selling opportunity should be over for now, in particular with equities making new highs the strong US unemployment numbers. Instead we can look for buying opportunities off 100 in this MT.
• Wait AUD/USD.  –  MT is sideways normal. Despite a rate cut and the good US job data, the AUD was up for the week, which is a bullish sign. The AUD is one of the highest yielding major currencies and maintains one of the better economic outlooks. In this yield starved world the AUD remains attractive and with stocks heading higher, I prefer to buy rather than sell. I favor AUD vs the crosses given the MT.
• Wait EUR/USD.  –  MT is sideways normal. The Euro remains tepid given both the dovish outlook from the ECB and weak economic growth. Watch for GDP data this week. Given the MT, it is best to wait.
• Wait NZD/USD.  Trend – MT is sideways normal. There was 6.6% increase in dairy prices last week, which is the best for a while. This week the key event is the RBNZ rates announcement where a rate cut is expected. The risk being to the upside give that the yield which will attract buyers, and that the market expects a cut and dovish outlook.
• Wait  USD/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. We can expect a further rate cut from the SNB later this year. Wait for now given the MT.
• Wait USD/CAD.  – MT is sideways normal. Oil remains in a bear MT and Canadian employment data was weak. I still like to buy a bullish breakout.
• Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now and stalk a bullish breakout.

Crosses

• Wait EUR/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait AUD/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now or possibly stalk a buy.
• Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait GBP/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait or sell.
• Sell EUR/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Continue to sell.
• Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait EUR/NZD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait and look to sell on a break of 1.4450.
• Sell GBP/AUD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Sell the breakout. My fav trade at the moment.
• Buy AUD/CAD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Look to buy but wary of resistance.
• Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait EUR/CAD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Look to buy, lower conviction.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Wait CAD/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now
• Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.

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Economic calendar for the week ahead:

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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