I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will be stalking this week.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
Note: As per last week, this report could be quickly out of date with the Greek Referendum this weekend so please watch the video that I do on Monday after the open for any changes.
- Waiting GBP/USD. – MT is bull volatile. GBPUSD is ignoring good news and selling off. A bearish sign but want to see technical confirmation of a bear first before looking short.
- Waiting USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues to hold and a doji candlestick at support on the weekly chart signals indecision.
- Short AUD/USD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. We have had a significant break-out on the AUDUSD with the weekly candlestick closing below the lower Bollinger band at multi-year lows. AUD is coming under pressure from the stock market crash is China and the continuation of the fall of commodity prices.
- Waiting EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. Need to wait and see how the EUR responds. Price action has been mixed despite what is quite a bearish fundamental situation. Caution advised.
- Short NZD/USD. Trend– MT is strong bear. Continue with our short strategy. Bearish milk auction for the NZD last week and more rate cuts expected.
- Waiting USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Sideways market type continues so best to stay out.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal . Classic persistent sideways market here. Would have been good trading but best to stay away from this pair due to event risk.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. The long opportunity mentioned a couple of week back continues to play out and we have now entered a bull market type. Oil has made a significant break lower on the weekly chart and bad data in Canada suggests that we could be in store for further rate cuts. Beware of a reversal candlestick pattern here at resistance that will take us back into a sideways market type.
- Waiting EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways volatile. We have a buy here using our market type model with a bullish engulfing candle off support in a sideways volatile MT. But best to stay out with Greece etc. A yes vote could push this pair higher.
- Short AUD/JPY. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Very bearish day on Friday confirms the breakout after the market gapped lower last Monday. If Greek fears persist this could be a very good short.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short.
- Waiting GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is volatile bull. In last weeks video we cancelled our long call after the gap lower and formation of a minor double top. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. This is possibly a short but prefer to stay out now. Will revise the call in the video on Monday.
- Long GBP/NZD. Trend – MT is normal bull. The trend continues so we keep buying, but with a deal of caution this week as the GBP is a little out of favor.
- Waiting EUR/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Watch for formation of a double top here. But wait for now as it’s the EUR.
- Waiting AUD/NZD. – MT is bull volatile. Last weeks short call failed initially but then came back close to the entry (depends if you were using a wide stop). The picture is unclear and volatile for now so stay out… but if pushed I prefer shorts. Go out to the weekly charts and the picture becomes clearer that resistance may hold here.
- Waiting EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy with caution.
- Waiting AUD/CAD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. While intially profitable we had the expected sell off here. I am very close to calling this a short based on the bearish engulfing off the key level, but want to wait for one more weeks confirmation.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Short NZD/CAD. Trend– MT is normal bear. Continue short. though with caution as the MT is turning sideways.
- Short CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. The MT quickly turned bear normal last week and we already have a trend. Time to go short.
- Short CHF/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look for shorts here, though with caution as the bear market is not yet strong.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com. If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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