- Short GBP/USD. Trend – MT is fast bear. The MT turned fast bear at the end of last week. We are coming up on support so caution is advised, but we certainly want to be looking short this week.
- Short USD/JPY.Trend – MT is bear normal. It looks like there will be no repeat of a “melt-up” recovery in equity markets that showed signs of happening 2 weeks ago. USDJPY has, in sympathy, reverted to a bear MT. If equites continue to sell-off the pair should continue to head lower in tandem, with an initial target down to 116.
- Short AUD/USD. Trend – MT is fast bear. AUD continues to come under pressure and we expect this to continue with no support all the way down to 60 cents. A stock market recovery would be supportive of the AUD, but the pair should head lower irrespective, with the Fed likely(!?) to raise rates in September.
- Waiting EUR/USD.– MT is sideways volatile. The Bollinger Band remain wide and the price action choppy with a slight trend lower near the end of last week. ECB has affirmed it’s commitment to more easing which should drive the pair lower over time. At this stage prefer to wait for a clear trend to establish itself.
- Short NZD/USD.Trend – MT is bear normal. The RBNZ is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points this week in response to deteriorating global and local conditions. Continue to look short.
- Waiting USD/CHF.– MT is sideways volatile. The long-term opportunity remains to the upside and the pair has held up well despite the sell-off in equities. Wait for a low risk entry to the long side.
- Waiting EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways quiet. Stalk a breakout above the Bollinger bands on the daily chart.
- Long USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Bull market type is just holding though trade carefully as we could well turn sideways this week. Decent employment numbers out of Canada on Friday but Oil is likely to be sideways/ bearish putting pressure on the pair – and don’t forget the USD should strengthen if equites head lower or rates are raised.
- Long EUR/GBP. – MT is bull normal. A key daily reversal suggests the pair has more upside, but we are approaching stiff resistance. Trade this pair with caution.
- Short AUD/JPY.Trend – MT is bear strong. The technical tone quickly turned bearish last week and the AUDJPY sold off heavily in response. The pair acts as a proxy to the stock market in these conditions and signals are pointing lower on equities. Of course be wary of a recovery in stocks.
- Short NZD/JPY. Trend– MT is bear strong. Similar to AUDJPY above with the additional catalyst of a rate cut this week.
- Short GBP/JPY.Trend – MT is bear strong. The pair is selling off heavily and with no support down to 175.00 we want to go short.
- Short EUR/JPY. Trend– MT is fast bear. The range was broken at the end of last week as equities closed lower. The strength of the sell-off indicates that perhaps the EUR’s bullish response to equity sell-offs will be limited.
- Waiting GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Long EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bull normal. But careful as we may be turning sideways.
- Waiting AUD/NZD.– MT is sideways volatile. Continue to wait for the price to get to 1.0900 and present a buy signal for a long-term opportunity.
- Long EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Last week’s reversal idea did not play out and the bull market has reasserted itself. Look to buy with caution as we are almost a bull volatile.
- Long GBP/AUD. Trend– MT is bull normal. Look to buy, but careful of a potential sideways MT forming.
- Short AUD/CAD. Trend– MT is fast bear. Look short
- Waiting GBP/CAD.– MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. -MT is bull volatile. Wait for now.
- Short NZD/CAD.Trend– MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Short CAD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Short CHF/JPY. – MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Waiting GBP/CHF.– MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders. He is a part owner of Forex Signal Provider fxrenew.com (You can get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter for free.