FX: a bigger-picture look at a few charts

I’m still away and so this is just a brief update but a few pairs look to be at key S/R levels as the US$ continues to bounce up from major support. US CPI data might be key here for the US$ index in the coming week. Gold looks to have printed a bit of a bearish-reversal ‘Evening Star’ weekly pattern as does the EUR/USD. The S&P500 is lower but still above the support of the daily Cloud.

Gold weekly: this has printed another bearish weekly candle and looks to have formed a bit of an ‘Evening Star’ style pattern which is a bearish-reversal pattern. This isn’t a text book example, but, the overall picture is pretty similar. Watch for any make or break from the $1,250 S/R level:

GoldWeekly

EveningStar

USDX: Gold could remain under pressure if the US$ remains on its bounce up from 92.50 support, however, the daily US$ chart shows the pattern of lower Highs and lower Lows still in progress and this cycle would need to be broken before any sustained bullish bias. Watch with US data but especially US CPI this coming week:

USDX weekly: a bullish weekly candle and price is holding above 92.50 support:

USDXweekly

USDX daily: a bearish cycle of lower Highs and lower Lows still exists and price remains is a descending trading channel. Both of these patterns need to be broken to convince of any bullish-reversal:

USDXdaily

S&P500 daily: down but still above the Cloud:

S&PdailyCloud

EUR/USD: has pulled back to the 78.6% fib of the recent swing high move from the 4hr chart but is still above the recent S/R level of 1.12:

E/U 4hr: note the 78.6% fib.

EU4

E/U weekly: a bit of an Evening Star style bearish-reversal pattern here too after rejecting the 1.15 level:

EUweekly

E/U weekly Cloud: note how price is mired in the resistance of the weekly Cloud:

EUweeklyCloud

E/U monthly: the 1.12 level is long-term S/R and this level is just below current price. Watch for any make or break from here:

EUmonthly

AUD/JPY: recent AUD$ weakness and the pullback with the S&P500 is impacting this pair. I have received a new 4hr chart TC signal to SHORT here BUT I note possible support from the triangle trend line just under current price. This trend line is best seen on the daily, weekly and monthly charts and, having been in place since 2008, could offer some decent support thus I’d urge caution with any SHORT trade near this region. There is AUD Employment data this week and this, apart from US$ impact, could tip the balance here for the triangle support trend line. Some will prefer to wait and see either a break or respect of the trend line before committing to any new trade on this pair.

A/J 4hr:AJ4

A/J daily:

AJdaily

A/J weekly:

AJweekly

A/J monthly:

AJmonthly

AUD/USD: this pair is also lower but near the 61.8% fib region of the daily chart’s recent swing high move so watch for any support. This recent fib is also near the key S/R level of 0.72 and a monthly chart 61.8% fib making this a huge confluence zone. AUD Employment data could also tip this pair too so watch for any make or break from 0.72.

A/U daily:

AUdaily

A/U monthly:

AUmonthly

GBP/USD: There is GBP Employment data to impact this pair in the coming week as well and so this remains worth watching as it trades between 1.40 and 1.46:

G/U 4hr:

GU4

G/U weekly:

GUweekly

NZD/USD: this is also weaker with the stronger US$ and lower stocks. Watch for any impact from NZD GDT and NZD PPI data this week though as price drifts towards key 0.67 S/R again:

Kiwi 4hr: watch for any make or break from 0.67:

Kiwi4

Kiwi monthly: a Bear Flag could still be brewing here:

KiwiMonthly

 

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