FX Charts Outlook: EURJPY, AUDJPY, EURGBP, GBPAUD

EURJPY: The cross did as we expected last week and continued its sharp decline from the opening levels around 135.80, trading within 20 points of our take profit target of 130.70 (61.8% of 119.10/149.77) by collapsing to 130.90 on Friday before a late  bounce to 132.40. The downtrend shows no real sign of reversing although the short term charts are oversold show some indication of needing to consolidate before the decline can continue.If so, sellers would arrive at minor Fibo levels at 133.30, 134.05 and 134.80, which all lie ahead of the descending trend resistance/200 HMA at around 135.80. Above here would indicate that a base is in place, although I don’t see it happening.

On the downside, I think we are likely to eventually return to Friday’s 130.90 low and to the Fibo support at 130.70. A break of this would suggest a move towards 128.50 (38.2% of 94.10/149.77) and then to 126.40 (76.4% of 119.74/149.77). Selling strength towards 134/134.75 seems to be the plan, with a SL placed above 135.00..

AUDJPY: After a few weeks of volatile trade, using 96.50 as a rough pivot, the cross headed sharply lower on Friday and looks as though it has further downside ahead after closing the week below the rising trend support seen at 93.70. If so, the next stop will be 92.70 (61.8% of 86.40/102.84) and then at the 16 Oct low at 91.76. Under here sees further losses towards the March 2014 low at 91.15 and the 76.4% Fibo support at 90.25.Above 93.70, the topside will find sellers at the minor Fibo levels at 94.05, 94.70, and at 95.20. I would be looking to sell into any near term strength, with a SL placed above the 100/200 HMA’s currently seen at 95.85, preferably above 96.00.

EURGBP: EurGbp collapsed again last week, accelerating on Friday trading in to a low of 0.7428, reaching the target at the Nov 1993 low at 0.7451 (Sterling/EMS equivalent). As a medium term view, it now looks to be headed towards  the 200 Month MA at 0.7355 and possibly to the major Fibo support at 0.7250 (61.8% of 0.5680/0.9802).

We may see a partial recovery this week, to allow the short term charts to recover, in which case the points to watch are at minor Fibo levels at 0.7535, 0.7570 and 0.7600. I think that layering into a short position at these levels, with a SL above the 200 HMA, currently at 0.7660, is probably the way to go.

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GBPAUD: The cross was pretty choppy for much of last week, but headed sharply higher on Friday, reaching 1.8997, as the Aud came under heavy pressure on all fronts after breaking down through US$0.8000. It looks as though we are going to have generally more choppy trade, but with an upside bias, in which case buying dips towards minor Fibo levels at 1.8840 and 1.8750 looks t be the plan, in anticipation of a move back towards the highs and then beyond 1.9000 towards 1.9075 (76.4% of 1.9306/1.8340). Below 1.8750 would see a continuation of the consolidation and could eventuate in a return towards 1.8600, s keep stops on long positions reasonably tight below 1.8750.

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