FX: expect the unexpected! By Mary McNamara

One thing I have come to realise trading FX over recent times is to expect the unexpected. In fact, this is the reason for the TC shift to focus on lower time frame charts as it helps to remove longer-term bias. The anticipated ‘risk-off’ shift did not develop and I had mentioned this as a possibility in my w/e analysis. Focusing on lower time frame, momentum-based trend line breakouts continues to be the safer way to trade at the moment.

Data: watch today with AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Chines GDP & Retail Sales, GBP Employment, USD Building Permit and NZD GDT Price Index data.

TC  site update: this is still a couple of days away with final revisions taking place.

USDX daily: no Flight to Safety move to the US$. Watch for any breakout here:

TC Signals and trend line breakouts:

GBP/JPY: I Tweeted last night to watch the GBP/JPY as it was trying to head up to test a major bear trend line. This was the 15 minute chart from that Tweet:

GBP/JPY 15 min:

GBP/JPY 5 min: dropping down to the 5 min chart reveals that a 5 min TC LONG triggered giving a 2.5 trade opportunity before the pair stalled at the monthly chart’s long-term bear trend line. This is why I focus on longer term charts for my weekend analysis!

GBP/JPY 4hr: Price is currently under the 32-month bear trend line and the 154 whole-number level but this latter S/R zone might be the one worth watching for any new make or break here. The target for any break higher would be the recent High near 156.5, some 250 pips away so worth stalking; especially with today’s GBP Employment data!

EUR/USD 4hr: this gave a breakout but it was too quick to catch with TC:

GBP/USD: the Cable has broken out above the triangle trend line but is currently resting at the next major S/R, a level that I noted in my w/e analysis, and that is at the recent High. This is the level to watch for any new make or break; especially with today’s GBP Employment data. There was a TC signal on the 15 min chart but this needed a large Stop however there was a better, lower-risk TC signal on the 5 min chart that is up 3.5 R:

GBP/USD 4hr: a small 40 pip move thus far but watch this recent High for any new make or break:

GBP/USD 5 min: the first TC signal to trigger after the Asian zone breakout is up 3.5 R:

Other Forex: keep an eye on the US$ as any continued weakness there could trigger new breakouts on some of the FX pairs below. Refer to my w/e analysis for targets:

EUR/JPY 4hr:

AUD/USD 4hr:

AUD/JPY 4hr:

NZD/USD 4hr:

USD/JPY 4hr:

Gold 4hr:

Oil 4hr:

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