FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: Australian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, quarter up 0.6% versus forecast of 0.4%; annually up 3.0% from 2.5%. Revisions also improved for last quarter. AudUsd popped to 0.7227. Aussie rates down 7-8bp, pushing yields up. Macro names bought AudNzd after the numbers, the cross jumped from 1.0858 to 1.0900. We do like this but this has been a painful trade. Yield spread point the pair to 1.14!

AudUsd continued to stay firm post-GDP data. Big trendline resistance comes in at 0.7251 and the 200-Day MA sits at 0.7256.

As a result of AudNzd cross play, NzdUsd slipped. Upcoming events, RBNZ meets on March 10; Governor Wheeler speaks on March 15; GDP and dairy auction on March 17.

UsdJpy faced early sales from Tokyo banks, which sent the pair down to 113.75. However, strong Nikkei and Topix propped the UsdJpy back to 114-handle. Some chatter of sell orders scattered near 114.20; heard stops only above 115.15.

Hardly anything worthy to pen on Euro. I hear offers are lined up atop 1.0900 and do note the 100-Day MA at 1.0930. Option bids near 1.0810.

UsdCad returned to 1.34-handle spooked by API report that US crude inventories rose 9.9mio barrels versus expectations of +3.6mio. Usd rose to 1.3430 high and remained firmly in the 1.34-twenties despite AudUsd firm as well. Better buying interests have been reported under 1.3360 and offers are nearer to 1.35-handle. Interesting remark from our colleague in Toronto that when UsdCad above 1.43 was like beer foam on top and if below 1.32 is like warm beer. No one likes either. His suggestion UsdCad to settle 1.3350-1.3650 for now. And I do like this idea. Technically we see momentum for UsdCad to test 1.3335 but our strategist is cautious. Bank of Canada meets on Mar 9 and although rates forecast unchanged, we expect the BOC to be very dovish. We see better buying 1.3355 thereafter and offers

The PBOC fixed came in at 6.5490 versus estimates of 6.5395. Ouch! Usd/Asia didn’t react immediately on that.

Koreans return today and UsdKrw got down to 1229.5 in the onshore market. Early morning report from RBA that the central bank allocated 5% of net reserves to Korean Won. I wonder what was their entry level?

USDCNH was the only pair that popped on the fix. We were trading in the 6.5490’s and jumped to 6.5520. High printed 6.5550; some guys expect North Asian guys to buy USDCNH on dips to unwind those exotic structures.

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