FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: EurUsd climbed as Tokyo walked in, drove the pair up to 1.1176. Heard offers are lined up ahead of 1.1200 linked to options while first area of bids at 1.1075 and more at 1.1050, ahead of the 200-Day MA 1.1044.

UsdJpy, which ended Friday New York at 113.85, was attempted to break higher twice but ran into offers from mid-sized Swiss bank near 114.00. Some people are talking about bids from leveraged names down in the 113.50’s; 200-Hour MA at 113.49. Some guys observed offers above 114.50.

AudUsd and NzdUsd started weak but just as the Tokyo traders walked in, both currency pairs strengthened. Some said “risk-on” mood sets up buying of Aud and Nzd against the Jpy.

Slow start for UsdCad, closed New York at 1.3209, traded higher on weak oil futures. However, strength in AudUsd had the UsdCad reversing to the day’s low 1.32018. We see good buying from under 1.3180 while the better selling comes in atop 1.33. Couple of important data out this week from Canada. Manufacturing sales on Wed – previously at +1.2%, CIBC forecasts +1.1% versus market consensus +0.5%. On Friday, Jan retail sales expected to come out at -0.1% from -2.2%; CPI should stay unchanged at +0.2% M/M.

Bomb exploded in Turkish capital, second terrorist attack in less than 1 month. No reaction on currency side.

It was slow for Asian EM – weekend Chinese data disappointed and the higher than guessed USDCNY fix at 6.4913 versus traders’ 6.4835 did no damage. China equity indices advanced.

Profit taking surfaced in USDCNH and pair took a short peek at 6.49-handle. Short-dated funding are still soft and according to our trader Gary, the soft T/N points triggered sell off in the 1-year CNH points. We started the day at 1820 and now offered at 1700.

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