FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: New Yorkers ended UsdJpy at 100.28 and early Asia walked it down, in an orderly manner to 99.935. No sign of strong bids. A brief bounce to 100.10 then took another dive to 99.73. No news whatsoever, heard the selling was all out of Tokyo. One FX reporter linked the UsdJpy move to this Bloomberg article that Japanese banks are running out of JGB to sell, pushing BOJ closer to the limits of its record monetary easing.

Japan’s July exports were weak but the imports were weaker falling 24.7% from -18.8%. UsdJpy had another go on the downside and printed 99.645. Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Masatsugu Asakawa repeated what he said yesterday. But market isn’t listening. It was when media reported a meeting between BOJ, FSA, MOF that got market panicking. UsdJpy which was in the 99.70’s popped to 100.10.

As long as it is all talk and no action, UsdJpy will be sold on rally.

Talk that a macro account bought Cable from the 1.3050’s up to 1.3067. This came after Telegraph published an article online which said Moody’s economists predicted Britain’s economy will slow down but should not go anywhere close to a recession. Article cited lower pound should support economic growth in the UK, while the government is expected to loosen the purse strings to shore up GDP.

Australian July jobs data came out strong. Jobless rate improved to 5.7% from 5.8%; added 26.2k jobs with bulk going to part timers with 71.6k. Our strategist Patrick Bennett said this is strong but suspects there could be some election impact – the full time went negative after strong gain in June. Pat said this is a good report but some details suggest caution.

Before the labour report, AudNzd was offered from the opening. No news – thus suspect all market positioning. The cross reversed back up to 1.0550’s on those numbers. AudUsd advanced into 0.77-handle – suspect there were some weak stops taken out near 0.7710 because the pair printed 0.7720 very quickly.

UsdCad retreated on higher Aussie dollar. Saw several platform-type names selling into the low 1.2815. UsdJpy got back to 100-handle and Aussie retreated, helped UsdCad up to 1.2838.

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