FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: Early bird catches the worm or not. Names out of Tokyo were better buyers of UsdJpy prior to Asia open (second Gotobi-Day of the month), lifted the pair to 105.96. Once we got on the 105-ninties, there wasn’t a lot of offers were planted in the main platform, there is a talk of exporters at 106.00, furthermore there is a UsdJpy 106.00 strike maturing today New York cut worth $1.1bn. Gotobi-Day demand wasn’t strong, exporters turned out to be better sellers and Usd slipped to 105.25. Our trader Jon Katz suggests long near 105.20-40.

UsdCad was 1.3405 when I stepped in 4.30 pm NY, jumped to 1.3425 at turn of the hour. We sold some there for options desk and North American names were the main buyers, of those 90% Canadians. When buying depleted, UsdCad was back to square one. The move, we believe, came from one Canadian real money buying GbpCad. Better buying seen below 1.3340 and we have some to go at 1.3420’s but the real thing is at mid-1.35’s. Today, there is a 1.3400 option expiry New York cut for $1.5bn.

Usd sentiment boosted the EurUsd from 1.0916 to 1.09325 and that was it. Option accounts sold Euro while EurGbp demand kept EurUsd supported. I suspect today’s market will be dominated by option strikes expiring today. 1.0850 for Eur1.2bn; 1.0900 for Eur1bn; 1.0950 for Eur1.4bn; and 1.1000 for Eur1.9bn.

One Canadian real money was involved in causing the GbpUsd move from 1.2414 to 1.2452. The pair drifted back to 1.2418 and then EurGbp flow led the GbpUsd to 1.2407.

Emerging Market
All eyes on USDCNY fix today. Market was expecting 6.79-handle but at 6.7885, our trader Gary reasoned that the central bank is pushing for slight RMB strengthening amid stronger DXY. USDCNH moved lower from 6.8275, we suspect pressure from agent banks as well when offshore spot reached 6.8112.

Someone is defending 1.4000 UsdSgd. First printed there then backed off immediately. Second time we touched that level and backed off to 1.3973. Barrier option is taken out, but definitely some gamma play up there. No sign of agent banks though.

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