FX Flows

 From the FXWW Chatroom: Australian first quarter inflation came in slightly slower than what experts have predicted.

AudUsd printed 0.7557 prior to release of inflation data, stops above the 200-Day SMA of 0.7552 are still untouched. AudUsd has backed off under the 100-Day SMA is at 0.7527, stops at and under 0.7500. Our trader Sam expects to see continued demand for EurAud following the Aussie CPI. AudUsd got down to 0.7506, we should anticipate exporters ahead of 0.7500 in AudUsd. EurAud broke overnight high 1.4550 should continue to grind higher.

Aussie inflation also caused speculators to offload AudNzd, which came off from 1.0855 to 1.0825. NzdUsd dragged little lower by the Aussie but cushioned by the cross. Kiwi support comes in at 0.6918 and 0.6908.

We witnessed good demand of EurJpy at the Tokyo open – suspect interest come from Japanese real money accounts going to work in European assets given the French election risk has dramatically subsided leaving Jpy as the best funding currency. Cross buying drove UsdJpy to 111.42 then drifted back to 111.20’s post fixing. EurJpy intraday resistance comes in at 122.25 while we heard UsdJpy sellers from onshore surrounding 111.55-65. UsdJpy got stuck in the 111.20’s post fix.

EurJpy caused the EurUsd higher – 1.0945. Our trader Sam mentioned that the Japanese investors are likely to put money into European assets given the French election risk. EurUsd technical resistance comes in at 1.0952, also gamma play expected for the 1.0950 option strike expiry April 28 for Eur2.3bn.

Weaker AudUsd also brought about profit taking in AudCad, thus UsdCad was capped. Canadian PM Trudeau said he spoke to US President Trump and refuted the baseless allegations of US Commerce department on lumber and Canada will vigorously defend interests of softwood lumber industry. Offers are mentioned above 1.3610, more mid-1.36’s.

(CIBC)
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