FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom – What 6.5646? Yes, that is the rate PBOC fixed the USDCNY this morning and here we go again. EurUsd popped and took out the “so-called” offers surrounding 1.0800, up to 1.0810. UsdJpy crashed to 117.66. AudJpy sold as well to 82.69 and AudUsd printed 0.7025. Traders noted good bids in AudUsd at 0.7135 were depleted. 

At the CNY fix, offshore USDCNH jumped to 6.7600 then reversed back. There was a fierce move from mid-6.73’s down to low-6.71’s then again to 6.6910 – which people suspected was job of the authorities. The USDCNH price action lifted AudUsd up and UsdJpy returning to 118-handle. 

Fall in Chinese indices triggered circuit breakers and the risk-off continues. Reopened and again, circuit breakers triggered. CSI300 fell 7% and they announced that China stocks halted for rest of the day. 

NzdUsd touched the trendline support at 0.6615; one technical guy mentioned that there will be some profit taking there and even if that breaks, more buying will surface near the 100-day SMA 0.6585. EurUsd remains firm even with USDCNH backed off. We heard some weak stops are located near 1.0825 but sellers reappear near 1.0850. 

UsdJpy bounce was limited. China equity trading halt failed to encourage. I heard fresh sellers are now scattered above 118.20. 

Oil futures down and Canadian dollar weakened as well; Japanese names were sellers of CadJpy (saw them buying UsdCad below 1.4080). 

What is interesting is how FX positions have changed for global investors. Position Index sees huge shift into long Jpy past 24 hours. They have also increase shorts in Gbp, Euro, but not aggressive. What is more interesting is that we feel these investors are moving very cautious – that is taking money off table. Positions reduced in short Sgd, Cad, Sek, Nok, Thb and Idr 

Asians 
No pain no gain but so much pain still no gain! 
The USDCNY fix sets off another round of real pain. With fix at 6.5646 versus market estimates of 6.5560, traders rushed in to buy Usd/Asia. There was a point where USDCNH reversed back below 6.70-handle and many suspected it was the work of officials. This dragged Usd/Asia lower too but market is not convinced. 

I think the officials are trying to narrow the gap between onshore and offshore. Fixing the USDCNY midrate and then selling the offshore. But will this work? 

Asian currencies got whacked. UsdSgd broke resistance at 1.4370 and took out 1.4400. Market rose to 1.4429 then reversed back to 1.4390. There was a talk of intervention but no one could confirm. UsdKrw rose above 1200.Last time we touch this level was back in Sept 2015. 

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