S/R levels, Fibonacci levels and trend lines are dominating the FX charting landscape ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC event, but, the best I think one can say is that most pairs are consolidating whilst waiting for this highly anticipated economic update.
USDX 4hr: this has stalled at the recent High and formed up with a ‘Double Top’ ahead of FOMC. This economic update has the potential to dictate whether this recent High or the 100 is taken out so watch both levels for any make or break with FOMC:
Gold 4hr: I had noted over the w/e that Gold was respecting descending wedge trend line support despite closing the week just below the daily chart’s 61.8% fib and $1,170 level. Price continues to hold here given the recent US$ weakness. Watch for any make or break from this wedge and $1,170 region with FOMC:
New TC Signals: There have been a few new TC signals on the 4hr time frame BUT the FX Indies are back to being divergent and 4hr TC signals are less reliable during these periods. As well, these three signals are essentially aligned for SHORT US$.
A/U 4hr: a new LONG signal here and a triangle breakout. Watch the 0.75 level here with today’s CNY CPI data though. NB: I am LONG this pair.
NZD/USD 4hr: a new LONG here too BUT note how price action is still triangle bound though. I would wait for a triangle breakout before taking any LONG here. Watch the triangle trend lines and 0.72 level here with today’s CNY data:
GBP/USD 4hr: Like the Kiwi, there has been a new LONG TC signal here too BUT note how price action is also still triangle bound. I would wait for a triangle breakout before taking any LONG here and be mindful that there is GBP CPI and lots of second tier GBP data tonight ahead of a busy weekly calendar for GBP data.
EUR/USD 4hr: holding above the major 1.045 S/R level but no new trend signal here yet. Watch this 1.045 region with FOMC for any make or break:
EUR/JPY 4hr: consolidating around the 122 whole number level. Watch these trend lines for any make or break with FOMC:
USD/JPY: this is respecting the daily chart’s 61.8% fib for now and formed a reversal-style ‘Shooting Star’ daily candle BUT FOMC could change this retreat in a heart beat. Thus, watch this 61.8% fib region near 105.50 for any make or break with FOMC:
USD/JPY daily + Fibs: watch the 50% and 61.8% fibs if there is any sustained pullback:
GBP/JPY 4hr: gave a triangle breakout but now also looking a bit ‘Double Top’ like ahead of FOMC:
USD/CAD: well, look where this pair is back trading! It is back near the bottom of the 9-month wedge and just above the key 1.30 level. Clearly, 1.30 is the level to watch for any make or break with FOMC:
USD/CAD monthly: 1.30 is major long-term S/R: