FX levels to watch ahead of ECB/BOE/NFP by Mary McNamara

USD strength shaped much of the FX direction overnight and this, along with the sharp drop in Gold, helped to drag the A/U down the most. The one valid TC signal from last week on the A/J has now closed off after yielding up to 300 pips. I do get the sense that the Yen pairs are simply taking a well earned rest before they embark on their next big moves!

A/J: the TC signal has now closed after yielding over 300 pips. I’ve got my eye on the 96 level for any pull back here:


Loonie: I noted in my w/e analysis that the Loonie had made a wedge breakout and also triggered a new TC signal but I was waiting for any close back above the 4 hr Cloud to confirm the TC signal. The wedge breakout alone went on to deliver 250 pips and the eventual close above the 4hr Cloud delivered up to 170 pips. Price stalled a bit overnight though as Oil rose which would no doubt have boosted the CAD. There is CAD data today as well as CAD employment data on Friday followed by USD NFP to impact here.  I am still hoping for a test of 1.10!

Loonie 4hr showing wedge breakout alone delivering up to 250 pips:


Loonie 4hr Cloud: the eventual Cloud breakout supported the TC signal and gave up to 170 pips:


E/U: the E/U looks set to close below the 1.25 level again BUT there is ECB interest rate news tonight and then NFP on Friday. I’m looking for any weekly close below 1.25 to short this pair based on the Bear Flag:


A/U: I have already written about this pair this morning. There is AUD employment data today, NFP on Friday and then Chinese Trade Balance on Saturday. I’m looking for any hold below 0.865 to short this pair as per the 630 pip Bear Flag.


Cable: what a wild ride here overnight!  Down over 100 pips and then back up again to …..near 1.60!  BoE announce interest rates tonight and then there is NFP on Friday that will impact here. I’m watching for a clear rejection of 1.60 and/or the wedge trend line for any new breakout move:


Kiwi: this it still chopping around above key 0.77 support. The main impact here will come from the USD reaction to NFP. I’m watching the 0.77 for any Bear Flag move and/or the wedge trend line for any bullish breakout:


U/J: The U/J is hanging around near a key S/R region. There is the 78.6% fib and a monthly and weekly resistance level nearby. Price may not move too far from here now until after NFP. Traders need to remember that I have been ranting on about the bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle here for many, many months now. The target here is 124 and that’s where I think this pair will head if the USD remains bullish:

U/J 4hr:


U/J monthly:


E/J: this pair seems to have parked itself near the 143 level ahead of ECB and NFP. Whilst I would like a pull back here I do see that a hold above 143 would suggest a move to test the 78.6% fib near 153:

E/J 4hr:


E/J monthly: a hold above 143 suggests a move to over 153:


GBP/JPY: This is holding up around the 183 level ahead of BoE and NFP news. Whilst I’d like a pull back to 179 I do see any continuation move would target the 50% fib near 184 and then the 61.8% fib near 200:

G/J 4hr:

G/J monthly:


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