I don’t expect it to be any coincidence that some of the major FX pairs are hovering near key S/R levels as the US$ continues to weaken and drift toward its own major support zone. Both FX Indices have been range-bound within channel patterns for around 18 months now and any breakout, whilst keenly awaited for by moi, might help to launch the FX pairs away from these key S/R levels. The current market is not conducive to my 4hr chart TC system and so I’m on the sidelines for the moment but I would expect that any FX index breakout would change that rather quickly. The recent US$ weakness has helped the FX Indices slip back into ‘risk-on’ alignment so I’ll be watching to see if this holds and, then, if there is follow through with this bias.
USDX daily: the 95.50 has given way so keep an eye on the 92.50 level. A break and hold below this level would be VERY significant as it is the base of an 18 month channel:
USDX weekly: note the break of 95.50 here. A weekly close below 95.50 will have me looking for a test of 92.50:
EURX daily: holding above 100 and a major 18 month channel trend line is looming here too!
EURX weekly: watch for any test of the long-term channel trend lines here too:
FX Index alignment: the recent US$ weakness has tipped the FX Indices into alignment for ‘risk-on‘. This means the EURX is trading above the 4hr and daily as well as the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the USDX is trading below the 4hr and daily as well as the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.
Gold: still consolidating under the major 5-year bear trend line. Watch for any bullish shift though if the US$ continues to weaken.
Silver daily: consolidating under the $20.50 S/R level:
Oil weekly: watch for any move to the $50 neck line here:
EUR/USD: for this pair the key level is 1.12. Watch for any test of the 1.15 region though given the recent FX Index alignment:
EUR/JPY: for this pair the level is the 115 zone:
AUD/USD: for this pair the level is the 3+ year bear trend line. Watch for any sustained breakout from this trend line given the recent FX Index alignment:
GBP/USD: for this pair it is the 1.30 level. Watch for any bullish hold above this 1.30 trend line now given the recent FX Index alignment:
NZD/USD: for this pair it is the 0.73 level. Watch for any breakout from this 0.73 region given the recent FX Index alignment:
USD/JPY: for the U/J it is the 100/101.50 region:
USD/CAD: for the Loonie it is the 1.30 level. Watch for any breakdown from this 1.30 level and the bottom channel trend line here given the recent FX Index alignment:
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