USD: USD remains on back-foot following disappointing Fed Minutes, with few events to look forward to into weekend. Fed announced Vice-Chairman Fischer will speak next week at Jackson Hole Symposium, but since the appearance is part of a panel, it is less clear that the remarks will be policy sensitive.
EUR: Preliminary PMI prints today the next data point, with little else on the schedule. EUR little swayed by announcement on September Greek election overnight. As the choice funding currency of recent years,unwinding risk positions likely to leave EUR supported.
GBP: As a risk correlated currency, dependent on financial inflows to fund the current account,GBP will suffer under market stress. Balanced against a more dovish Fed expectation, EURGBP may be where its most felt.
JPY: USDJPY trading lower amid broad dollar consolidation.JPY’s position as a safe haven likely to continue to support it while markets remain uneasy. Likely to hear from policymakers on move below 120.
CAD: CAD poorly positioned. Today’s retail sales (0.2% exp. vs. 1.0% prior) and CPI (1.3% exp. vs. 1.0% prior) will be the data highlights of the week. Lagging move in oil to some degree so may be scope for catch-up on weaker data flow.
AUD: China PMI weaker than expected making a new low at 47.1.All likely to increase focus on CNY and raise expectations of Asia FX depreciation.
NZD: Starting to see stronger focus given recent moves in dairy prices. However, with trend in milk likely unchangedwe would sell into rallies.