FX: marking time ahead of month end & this week’s data

A number of currency pairs are little moved given the relative quiet from the US and London market holiday, with the US$ stalled at resistance and possibly with a bit of month-end in mind after today’s close. This could remain the case though until the release of bigger data items later in the week (Wed CNY data, Thurs ECB & OPEC and Fri NFP as just some).

USDX daily: I’ve already noted how the 95.50 level has been taken out but the bear trend line, daily 200 EMA and top of the daily Cloud have yet to be convincingly broken. Any failure of the US$ to move up through this resistance will have a flow-on effect with commodities and currencies.



Gold daily: the $1,200 level is holding for now and if the US$ weakens at all then this could help form a support level for the metal. However, any continued US$ strength will have me looking at lower levels for support down at $1,150 and $1,145 as previously noted.


TC Signals: Two signals were noted last Sunday but they came with cautionary warnings that proved to be well worthwhile as both signals have failed.

EUR/USD: closed off for a loss of 50 pips as the noted support trend line did, indeed, kick in:

EU4 EUdaily

AUD/USD: this also closed for a loss but only of 30 pips with major fib support being possibly some of the reason but the wait for this week’s batch of AUD, CNY and USD data also being a factor. There is AUD Building Approval data today so watch for any reaction to this but I think tomorrows AUD GDP and CNY PPI data could be more significant:

AU4 AUmonthly

Other Forex:

AUD/JPY: the 80 level remains the big level to watch here as per my notes from yesterday:


GBP/USD: this is holding above the 1.46 support level and traders need to watch the upper trend line from the bullish-reversal descending wedge. A break and hold above this wedge trend line would support a move up to test 1.50:

GU4 GUweekly

NZD/USD daily: the 0.67 continues to be a strong S/R level and watch to see where it closes after today for ‘end of month’. A close & hold above 0.67 would be a somewhat bullish signal:


USD/JPY daily: in a triangle but back at the recent S/R level of 111:


GBP/JPY weekly: anyone else seeing a bit of a bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ here:


USD/CAD 4hr: consolidating near the major 1.30 level ahead of tonight’s CAD GDP and then watch later later in the week for OPEC and NFP:


EUR/NZD daily: also in a triangle as well as under the key 1.675 but with little momentum:


GBP/AUD : those who caught the wedge breakout would now be up around 1,800 pips! The 2.07 level is back on the radar:




GBP/NZD: this has continued to bounce up from 2.10 support:

GNweekly GNmonthly

EUR/AUD: the 1.55 remains a key level here, especially with ‘month end’ today:

EAdaily EAmonthly

EUR/GBP weekly: looking to see if either the 0.76 and or 0.75 whole number levels hold. If not, I would then look to the 0.74 area with the 61.8% fib:


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