This week: There is a lot of economic data in the coming week, especially from the US, and this might help to get the US$ moving and thereby determine the fate for many currency pairs. There is also the new US political landscape that impacts currency movement to navigate as well. A number of currency pairs are again shaping up within technical patterns that are worth watching for any momentum-based breakout given that recent technical breakout trades have been very profitable.
NB: this is just a brief w/e update as I am away for the w/e.
US$: The next directional move with the US$ might determine the fate for many currency pairs. A review of the FX Indices can be found through this link.
Last week:
There were a lot of successful breakout trades again last week and, as with previous weeks, these were flagged in advance from the technical patterns posted in my w/e update. The pips tally without the Peso was over 2,700 pips but if one throws in this exotic currency then the tally was up around 4,700 pips. Some of these trend line breakouts also evolved with 4hr-based TC signals and went on to be quite profitable. A pip tally is noted below but charts showing these breakout moves can be seen in an earlier post through this link and also through this link:
- EUR/USD: triangle b/o + TC signal: just 50 pips before TC signal closed.
- NZD/USD: triangle b/o: 130 pips before closing.
- GBP/USD: triangle b/o + TC LONG: 280 pips before TC signal closed.
- GBP/AUD: triangle b/o +TC LONG: 350 pips & still open.
- GBP/JPY: Flag b/o: 260 pips & still open.
- USD/MXN: trend line b/o: 2,000+ pips but now closed.
- USD/TRY: triangle b/o: 350 pips and another one later in the week for 900 pips.
- USD/CNH: triangle b/o: 450 pips.
Calendar: High Impact items to monitor:
Forex:
EUR/USD: There is a triangle on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum.
There isn’t any high impact EUR data this week but there is a lot of medium impact, or ‘second tier’, data and there is also a lot of USD data so watch these items for impact on this currency pair.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib up near 1.10
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 1.045 S/R level.
EUR/JPY: momentum is up on the 4hr chart but watch for any breakout form the daily and 4hr chart’s multi-week trading channel.
Watch for impact from the BoJ Rate update this week.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the daily chart’s 61.8% fib up near 134
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib down near 116 and 115 S/R.
AUD/USD: The Aussie continues to chop around under a major 3 1/2 year bear trend line and this is giving us a triangle on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum.
There is a bit of second-tier AUD data this week plus all of the USD-related data as well as CNY Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib up near 0.95.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib down near 0.735.
AUD/JPY: As with the EUR/JPY, momentum is up on the 4hr chart but watch for any breakout form the mulit-week trading channel.
There is the AUD second tier data this week plus CNY Manufacturing data as well as the BoJ Rate statement as well.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the key 89 S/R level.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib near the key 80 level.
GBP/USD: There is a Flag pattern on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum. I will be keen to see how the monthly chart closes next week as there looks to be a bullish-reversal style ‘Double Bottom’ forming up for now.
There is a lot of GBP and USD data to impact this pair this week: There is GBP Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI plus a BoE Inflation report, an Interest Rate update and a BoE Gov Carney speech. There is also a lot of USD data so check your calendar for these items.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 1.30 S/R level in particular.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib in the 1.22 region plus the major low near 1.20.
NZD/USD: There is a triangle on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum. Keep an eye on the 0.73 long-term S/R level as well.
There is NZD Employment data to monitor this week plus CNY data and all of the USD data.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the weekly chart’s 61.8% fib up near 0.785.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 50% fib near 0.71 and the previous monthly chart TL plus the 61.8% fib near the 0.70 S/R level.
USD/JPY: This looks to be holding up for the time being following last week’s bullish breakout from the 4-week descending trading channel.
There is a lot of data to impact this pair in the coming week: There is the BoJ Rate statement plus all of the USD data.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the major 124 S/R level.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 4hr chart’s 61.8% fib near 107.
GBP/JPY: This pair is still on the move following last week’s bullish breakout but the 147 long-term S/R level might come into greater focus this week. I’d expect that if bullish action continues then this level would be the target.
There is a lot of GBP, JPY and USD data to impact this pair this week: There is GBP Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI plus a BoE Inflation report, Interest Rate update and a BoE Gov Carney speech. There is also the BoJ Interest Rate update and a lot of USD data so check your calendar for these items.
- Bullish continuation will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 147 S/R level.
- A bearish turn will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 137 S/R level.
USD/CAD: Watch for the monthly candle close and to see whether price action makes a breakout from the monthly triangle. Also keep an eye on the weekly chart’s ascending trading channel and the key 1.30 level for any make or break.
There is CAD GDP and a BoC Poloz speech this week as well as all of the USD data to monitor.
- A bullish bounce will have me watching: whole number levels.
- A bearish turn will have me watching: whole numbers plus the 1.30 major S/R level.
GBP/AUD 4hr: There is a Flag on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum.
GBP/NZD 4hr: There is a triangle on the 4hr chart to watch for any trend line breakout that evolves with an up-tick in ADX momentum.
USD/MXN: This pair is experiencing a lot of movement following recent political issues surrounding the new US president. Much of this press might have been deemed to favour a rally for this pair but price has retreated from its high during the last two weeks.
The weekly chart shows that a bearish-reversal ‘Evening Star’ pattern has formed up yet a Bull Flag style pattern can be seen on the daily and 4hr chart. At least this 4hr Flag is giving us trend lines to watch for any momentum-based breakout move. There has been a surge in bearish momentum on the 4hr chart but watch for any shift in this landscape when the new trading week begins and keep an eye on the Flag trend lines for guidance here too. Remember, there is a lot of US data to monitor this week as well.
- A bullish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the recent high near 22.
- A bearish breakout will have me watching: whole numbers plus the daily chart’s 61.8% fib near 19.50.
USD/CNH 4hr: this gave a triangle breakout last week that I had Tweeted about and this is up 450 pips and still going for now. Before and after b/o shots shown:
USD/TRY 4hr: this gave a triangle breakout last week following a Tweet I sent out and this move gave up to 900 pips but looks to have stalled for now. Before and after b/o shots shown:
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