The US$ and Japanese Yen are the main beneficiaries of this recent bout of market uncertainty surrounding the Greek debt situation. The Flight to Safety trade has been to both of these currencies and, interestingly, not to Gold. Major support levels on a number of trading instruments are under pressure, or have been broken, and the charts of some of these items are discussed in this post.
The current trading situation definitely seems slanted to a dire ‘risk off’ focus but I continue to urge caution as any Greek-debt deal may trigger a significant relief rally in the opposite direction. Whether such a move might be justified or not however is, really, rather irrelevant.
USDX 4hr: the recent bear trend line has been broken. A weekly chart breakout would support a Bull Flag move and bring the $100 level back into focus:
EURX daily: despite the US$ strength and continued Greek debt uncertainty the EURX is holding up pretty well and still within a daily triangle and above 96 support:
Ichimoku Cloud alignment: the FX index charts are now back to being aligned for ‘Risk Off’ or, rather, as LONG US$ and SHORT EUR. I would still urge caution here though as any Greek deal may be perceived as positive and trigger a significant relief rally. Either that or the Ichimoku Cloud knows something we don’t!
USDX: price action is above the daily and 4hr Cloud
EURX: price is below the daily and 4hr Cloud:
S&P500: the index is below the daily Cloud but I am more focused on the weekly Cloud and daily support trend line. Both of these intersect near 2,000 so that’s the level I’m watching:
SPX daily Cloud:
SPX weekly Cloud:
Gold: Commodities, in general, are suffering from the stronger US$ and concern about global growth amidst a possible Grexit and the perceived slowdown with China.
Gold daily: Price is below $1,180 but still above the $1,145 and 61.8% fib support for the time being.
Gold monthly: any break and hold below $1,145 would bring the whole number $1,000 level into focus and, then, the $950 level as this is the region of the monthly 200 EMA and 78.6% fib:
Silver: this is suffering for pretty much the same reasons as other comodities.
Silver daily: A major support trend line has been been broken and the $15 level is under pressure today. Watch for any daily, and then weekly, close and hold below $15:
Silver monthly: a weekly or monthly close and hold below $15 would bring the $11 S/R region into focus as well as the $8.50 region as this is the 100% fib:
Forex: the main focus is still on the Greek debt discussions and this looks to be extended out to at least Sunday. Most of the chart moves are shaped by the Flight to Safety movement to the US$ and Japanese Yen. As previously stated, caution is required though in case any Greek debt solution is brokered as this may trigger a significant relief rally in the opposite direction. Add to this as well that the BoJ just might intervene if the Yen straightens too much.
EUR/USD: there has been a 4hr break below a recent trend line BUT we really need to see a weekly close below this trend line to support a 3,500 pip Bear Flag breakout move:
EUR/JPY: the 134 level is a decent S/R region that is under pressure at the moment. Whole number levels and monthly fibs would make sense as possible bearish targets following any weekly close below 134:
AUD/USD: there hasn’t been any test of 0.755 yet and there may not be if a Grexit evolves. This would then support the 1,700 pip Bear Flag pattern:
Kiwi: still channel bound:
AUD/NZD monthly: I’m still not convinced that this bearish A/U move isn’t just to satisfy the technical pullback to the 50% fib or broken trend line here on the AUD/NZD:
AUD/JPY: the month has a way to go but any monthly close below this major trend line would bring the 74.50 /61.8% fib back into focus:
Cable: this pair triggered a new TC signal last night and has closed below the 1.55 level. This brings the 1.50 level back into focus and I do note that the bearish weekly H&S still looks intact:
USD/JPY: the key 122 level is coming under pressure and any break and hold below this would bring lower support levels into focus. These include: 118.5, 115 and 110 as just some.
GBP/JPY: the 190 level has been broken and this brings lower S/R regions back into focus. These include: 184 and 179 as just two:
Loonie: the daily triangle breakout has continued here and I still see the 1.30 level as one target:
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