FX: the bigger picture and the noise

Not much has changed since yesterday’s update except I did manage to sort out my Windows 10 and screen shot issues. There are some bigger picture patterns setting up on many FX pairs that continue to try and grid through to completion. These can be seen on the daily charts, and on larger time frames for some pairs, but much of the movement within these patterns is just choppy noise-type action. This is still trade-able if you are able to catch the movement during the higher-momentum European and US sessions for sure but, still, it’s really just noise. The thing with these larger patterns though is that it gives us levels to watch for any make or break action. Some of these patterns and trend lines are shown below.

USDX: this is within a range bound Flag or channel on the weekly time frame but, on the daily, its still making lower lows and lower highs as we wait for this week’s NFP. Mixed US data overnight have traders nervous about the US rate hike agenda:

USDX weekly: a Flag that has gone on now for well over 12 months!


USDX daily: a descending channel within the weekly Flag:


EUR/USD daily: range bound within a daily triangle. Watch the triangle trend lines for any breakout:


EUR/JPY daily: holding above key 126 support but under a long-term bear trend line:


AUD/USD daily: struggling to break free from the 0.74 level:


AUD/JPY daily: in a wedge on the 4hr but a larger triangle on the daily:


GBP/USD daily: within an Inverse H&S on the daily that’s set within a descending channel on the weekly:


NZD/USD daily: within a wedge on the daily that could be part of a huge Bear Flag on the monthly:


USD/JPY daily: I noted yesterday how this was range bound between 111 and 115. I see on ForexLive that SocGen suggest playing this same range :-)


USD/CAD daily: the 1.30 is holding as support for now but watch for any grief from the 1.35 level IF price gets up that far:


EUR/NZD daily: within a weekly triangle but near key S/R from 1.675:


GBP/NZD daily: also in a large triangle but watch the 2.10 S/R level as well:


GBP/AUD daily: this is still making lower highs and lower lows. Watch for support from Fib levels:


EUR/AUD daily: within a 4hr wedge but this is within a larger triangle:


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