FX update post Greek OXI result & Yen pairs in focus

The Greek Referendum ‘No’ vote result has surprised many. The full consequence of this result won’t be known until possibly after Tuesday but, despite all of this uncertainty, here is a look at how the major FX and stock charts are looking at the moment. It is worth noting that the Gold and Silver charts do not seem to be reflecting any ‘Grexit’ fear just yet. This latest development has brought the Yen into greater focus as it may benefit from a ‘Flight to Safety’ run if the Greek situation worsens.

USDX 4hr: the US$ has gained today on EUR weakness but is back struggling at the recent bear trend line. Any breakout here would suggest the start of a Bull Flag and would also bring the 100 level back into focus:


EURX daily: despite the pressure on the EUR price action here is still contained within a triangle pattern. I would expect the bottom trend line and 96 support level would come under pressure if talks between Greek and Eurozone officials breakdown:


Silver daily: keep an eye on the bear trend line and the $15 and $16 support levels:


Gold daily: keep an eye on the $1,145 support level. The areas above current price worth watching include the $1,180 , $1,200 level and the bear trend line:


S&P500 weekly Cloud: I’m watching for possible support from the top of the weekly Cloud and the 2,000 level.  


S&P500 monthly: A weekly close below the weekly Cloud would be bearish and may bring a much deeper pull back to the support region of 1,600 that I’ve had on my charts for a couple of years now. I had wondered what global event might be big enough to ever trigger such a pull back and….hmmmm:


Forex: there were gaps at market open on a few pairs and these have mostly filled. The world continues to watch on and wait for news updates on how this Greek debt situation is going to play out. Caution is warranted though as any perceived Greek-debt deal could trigger a significant relief rally.

E/U: this has had a Gap fill and is holding above Bear Flag support for the time being:

E/U 4hr: trend line support has held:


E/U daily: no Bear Flag breakdown just yet:


E/J: any break below 132 support may see this pair test lower fib levels:

E/J 4hr: almost a Gap Fill here too:


E/J monthly: moniotr fib levels for any close and hold below 132:


A/U daily: no move back above or test of 0.755 yet. 


A/U weekly: A hold below 0.755 may signal the start of a 1,700 pip Bear Flag:


A/J: The Yen pairs are worth watching if Greek talks fail as I would expect the Yen might be the flight to safety currency:

A/J 4hr: the trend line has held thus far:


A/J monthly: note a more important trend line below this one though and this is a monthly trend line that has been in force since 2008! Any break and hold below this might suggest a 61.8% fib retreat down to the 74.5 region! This is a strong S/R zone in it’s own right:


Cable 4hr: holding up pretty well and I would expect this to continue to make gains especially if the EUR falls further due to EUR/GBP flows. Look for support or reaction around the 1.55 level:


Kiwi 4hr: also holding up quite well and still within a daily channel:


U/J: this is another one to keep an eye on in case the Greek debt talks breakdown.

U/J 4hr: watch for any breakdown through 122:


U/J monthly: a break of 122 would bring the 118.5 level back into focus. Any break and hold below 118.5 might suggest a trip to even just the 50% fib down near 101 which is a clear S/R zone in its own right:


GBP/AUD: it doesn’t seem that long ago that I was urging traders to watch the 2.0 level on this pair but that was almost 700 pips ago! Price is now stumbling a bit at the 2.07 level and the monthly chart reveals this to be a decent zone of S/R as well as being just below the monthly 200 EMA. There is an obvious Cup appearance to this chart and we may start to see some choppy action by way of a “Handle’ form up here. Regardless, the 2.07 seems to be the next major S/R level to watch:


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