FX: Waiting for US GDP and the month to close?

The US$ has held at the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move and this level seems like it might be the venue for ‘wait and see’ until US GDP is released. That is, unless the G7 meetings trigger any reaction. Stocks have cheered encouraging headlines about the Greece situation however Gold and Silver have slipped a bit further. Month-end activity may drive some movement over the next two days but some FX pairs seem to be bunkered-in at key S/R levels whilst waiting for the monthly candles to close.

 USDX daily: holding at the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move for now. A break and hold above this would suggest a trip to the 78.6% fib and then the 100 level:


FX Index daily Cloud: don’t expect too much FX activity until both the USDX and EURX escape their daily Clouds. I won’t be expecting any new TC signals either. Any continued US$ strength could tip the indices into an alignment for LONG USD and SHORT EUR but this hasn’t evolved as yet:

USDX daily Cloud: within the daily Cloud:


EURX daily Cloud: ditto:


EURX daily: this is refusing to give up the 96 level for the time being:


S&P500 daily: holding above the Cloud and recent trend line:


S&P500 30 min: this has given some great 30 min trend-trade opportunities of late:


Silver 4hr: has slipped below 61.8% fib support:


Silver daily: has yet to escape recent trading ranges:


Silver weekly: it does look like its trying to form a base here though:


Gold 4hr: a bit lower but still above the $1,180 level:


Gold daily: needs to break above the weekly bear trend line to really encourage any LONG traders:


Gold weekly: the bear tend line needs to be taken out to enable any bullish continuation:


Forex: no new TC signals. There is AUD Capital Private Expenditure, GBP Second Estimates and US Unemployment Claims data today as well as the G7 meetings.

E/U 4hr: holding up pretty well considering the amount of negative EUR-related news that is around:


E/J daily: chopping sideways but I’m still seeing a possible bullish ‘inverse H&S’ here:


A/U 4hr: still pretty much within a recent descending channel and above 78.6% fib support. Watch for any reaction to AUD data today:


A/U daily: I still wouldn’t be too confident shorting here unless the 0.755 level is taken out:


A/J 4hr: 96 is still the level to watch here:


Cable daily: Yes, it is below the key 1.55 level but it still has a bit of a Bull Flag appearance just for now. Watch for any reaction to tonight’s GBP data:


Kiwi 4hr: below the key 0.735 level:


U/J 4hr: no pullback to test 122 yet:


U/J monthly: this has now almost tested the June 2007 high level of 124.130:


GBP/JPY daily: this has yet to close and hold above the recent 190 ‘Double Top’ region:


GBP/JPY monthly: success at 190 though would leave a pretty clear pathway:


EUR/NZD 4hr: still hugging the 1.50 level:


GBP/AUD: chopping above the monthly chart’s bear trend line:


GBP/NZD: chopping above the key 2.10 level:


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