The Jackson Hole schedule has been released as the opening reception gets underway. No major surprises with the respective heads of Central Banks already having known timings. Much of the focus will be around the addresses that occur during market hours, with Yellen speaking at 10pm HKT tonight (3pm LDN 10am NY) and Draghi speaking at 2.30am HKT (7.30pm LDN 2.30pm NY). Otherwise the Policymaker panel discussion on Sun at 00:30 HKT (Sat 5:30pm LDN, Sat 12:30pm NYT) features Ben Broadbent of the BOE, Haruhiko Kuroda of the BOJ, and Alexandre Antonio Tombini of the Central Bank of Brazil. BofAML’s Global Rates and Currencies research team look for Yellen to expand upon the idea of “significant underutilization” introduced at the July FOMC.
RBS: Amplifying Global FX | Upside risk for US rates and USD/JPY:
US short-end rates are trending higher and have become more responsive to US economic data. This makes sense as we approach an historic turning point in US policy. US data this week; including strong housing market data, manufacturing surveys, ongoing downtrend in unemployment claims and stronger leading indicators suggest rates should rise further. Some cautiousness may be holding back rates ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, but Yellen may only need to repeat the message she delivered in June and July to see a further rise in US short-end rates (out to 2-year maturities); i.e. the Fed’s rates outlook is evenly balanced around the current set of FOMC member projections made in June. The USD/JPY is becoming more responsive to short-term rates and we expect this to continue now that Japan’s current account surplus has disappeared and it has negative real interest rates.
Seems that there is nothing untoward regarding train derailment in Ukraine