G10 TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK – Sell GBPCAD

From the FXWW Chatroom: We like selling GBPCAD, underlining the tactical nature of this trade. We remain oil-bearish, but cannot ignore market positioning leading to a further oil price squeeze. The direct terms of trade effect of fluctuating oil prices is more significant for CAD compared to GBP. The oil price impact on GBP is of indirect nature, coming via falling dividend payments of its oil sector investment and the investment flows of sovereign wealth funds. Sovereign wealth fund flows into the UK relative to GDP are five times higher than flows into the US. This reduced oil-related net inflow into the UK is long term, while terms of trade effects work immediately. Hence, the oil short-covering rally should work in better support for CAD compared to GBP.
Fiscal and monetary divergence provides the most important factor for our bearish GBPCAD position. While Canada works on a moderate 0.3% fiscal impulse, the UK’s fiscal tightening announced in summer looks pro-cyclical with hindsight. The BoE seems to have no intention of tightening early, while the BoC has ignored calls to ease policy, keeping rates unchanged when meeting last Wednesday.
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(MS)

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